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Consider the 2000 U.S. presidential election of Bush v. Gore, the outcome of which was decided by a tiny margin in the state of Florida.

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Consider the 2000 U.S. presidential election of Bush v. Gore, the outcome of which was decided by a tiny margin in the state of Florida. Let Hi denote the true fraction of votes won by Bush in Florida. In any count i of the votes, there is some error (denoted by ei), due to human mistakes or errors in the way the machine reads the ballots. The error component for a given count of the ballots i is denoted , which is distributed according to Unif(-.05, +.05). Note that this implies Ele:] = 0 The error term is i.i.d. across any count of the ballots. Write the outcome of any count: Yi = u + (For this question, assume Bush and Gore are the only two candidates, and that Bush is declared the victor if he gets at least 5 of the votes.) Florida state law mandates a recount of the votes if the first count is really close. According to law. the votes will be recounted once and the outcome of that recount will determine the election result. A TV news commentator argues that there is no point to recounting the votes because there is just as much error in the recount as there is in the initial count. Propose an estimator A for using your data on the two counts: {y}}-1 Consider the 2000 U.S. presidential election of Bush v. Gore, the outcome of which was decided by a tiny margin in the state of Florida. Let Hi denote the true fraction of votes won by Bush in Florida. In any count i of the votes, there is some error (denoted by ei), due to human mistakes or errors in the way the machine reads the ballots. The error component for a given count of the ballots i is denoted , which is distributed according to Unif(-.05, +.05). Note that this implies Ele:] = 0 The error term is i.i.d. across any count of the ballots. Write the outcome of any count: Yi = u + (For this question, assume Bush and Gore are the only two candidates, and that Bush is declared the victor if he gets at least 5 of the votes.) Florida state law mandates a recount of the votes if the first count is really close. According to law. the votes will be recounted once and the outcome of that recount will determine the election result. A TV news commentator argues that there is no point to recounting the votes because there is just as much error in the recount as there is in the initial count. Propose an estimator A for using your data on the two counts: {y}}-1

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