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Consider the following scenario analysis: Scenario Probability Rate of Return Stocks Bonds Recession 0 . 2 0 5 % 1 9 % Normal economy 0

Consider the following scenario analysis:

Scenario Probability Rate of Return

Stocks Bonds

Recession

0.20 5 % 19 %

Normal economy

0.60 20 % 10 %

Boom

0.20 27 % 4 %

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