Consider two 2-year options with a strike price of $52 on a stock whose current price is $50. The exhibits below show the binomial trees used to price the two options. There are two steps of 1 year and in each step the stock either moves up by 20% or moves down by 20%. The risk-free rate is 5%.

Calculate the risk neutral probability

		1.415
		0.372
		0.628
		0.718

Exhibit 4