Contingency Table

In 42 of the 64 years from 1950 through 2014, the S& P 500 finished higher after the first five days of trading (in 2011 there was virtually no change). In 37 out of 42 years, the S&P 500 finished higher for the year. Is a good first week a good omen for the upcoming year? The following table gives the first-week and annual performance over this 64-year period.

S&P 500's Annual Performance First week Higher Lower Total Higher 37 42 Lower 11 11 22 Total 48 16 64