CoursHeroTranscribedText: Quantitative Techniques for Business Project School of Economics and Finance Curtin University Felix Chan July 25, 2016 1 Introduction The aim of this project is to evaluate different portfolio compositions of financial assets based on time series data. It requires both the statistics and mathematics components of the unit and you should be able to do parts of the project as the unit progresses. I would suggest you tackle the project on a weekly basis and complete as many questions as possible. 2 Data Download the file "stock201602.csv" from Blackboard. The file contains the daily prices of Apple, IBM, Intel and Microsoft for the period 2001.05.03 to 2016.03.29. Note that the prices on weekends and public holidays have been removed. 3 The Analysis 1. Plot the prices of each asset separately against time using software such as EXCEL or Tableau. What do you observe on the movement of these prices during the Global Financial Crisis (late 2008)? 1 2. Calculate the returns of each asset using the following: rt = 100 ln Pt Pt1 where Pt is the asset price at time t. Plot the returns for each asset price. 3. Create a histogram for each of the returns series and report their descriptive statistics including mean, median, mode, variance, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis. What conclusion can you draw by examining the kurtosis in each case? 4. Under the assumption that the returns of each asset are drawn from an independently and identically distributed normal distribution, are the expected returns statistically different from zero for each asset? State clearly the null and alternative hypothesis in each case. 5. Assume the returns of each asset are independent from each other, are the mean returns statistically different from each other? 6. Calculate the correlation matrix of the returns. 7. Is the assumption of independence realistic? If not, re-test the hypotheses in Question 5 using appropriate test statistics. Compare the results to the results obtained in Question 5. 8. If you can only choose maximum of two assets into a portfolio, which will you choose? What are the optimal weights and the optimal expected returns? State clearly your objective function and provide step-by-step derivations. 9. Bonus question: Why is it not realistic to assume these prices follow a normal distribution? 2 4 Submission Please submit your solutions to your local instructor by Friday 4 November 2016 at 5:00pm. Please ensure you show all workings as full mark will not be awarded without showing all essential steps. 3 qattachments_ce2872fa07c0c77faaa0614e6d1e35b817ea0a12 Date AAPL IBM INTC MSFT 2001-05-03 1.78 113.7 30.4 34.26 2001-05-04 1.84 115.86 30.88 35.38 2001-05-07 1.78 115.9 31.16 35.69 2001-05-08 1.76 117.7 31.48 36.03 2001-05-09 1.71 116.98 29.85 35.2 2001-05-10 1.64 115.2 29.01 35 2001-05-11 1.63 111.81 27.94 34.7 2001-05-14 1.66 112.56 27.41 34.36 2001-05-15 1.66 113.58 27.2 34.14 2001-05-16 1.72 115.8 28.39 34.58 2001-05-17 1.68 115.07 28.6 34.08 2001-05-18 1.68 117.44 28.76 34.04 2001-05-21 1.68 119.04 29.9 34.39 2001-05-22 1.68 118.01 29.53 35.16 2001-05-23 1.66 117.4 28.8 34.85 2001-05-24 1.66 119.6 29.21 35.86 2001-05-25 1.63 117.8 29.1 35.46 2001-05-29 1.53 115.27 27.85 35.17 2001-05-30 1.41 112.65 26.6 34.59 2001-05-31 1.42 111.8 27.01 34.59 2001-06-01 1.49 112.89 28.74 35.17 2001-06-04 1.48 113.64 28.5 35.39 2001-06-05 1.5 116.97 29.73 36.3 2001-06-06 1.48 117.5 29.82 36.18 2001-06-07 1.55 117.25 31.16 36.82 2001-06-08 1.52 116.1 30.67 36.59 2001-06-11 1.43 117.36 30.33 36.06 2001-06-12 1.45 117.25 30.13 36.04 2001-06-13 1.46 116.54 29.06 35.34 2001-06-14 1.42 115.75 27.61 34.45 2001-06-15 1.46 113.6 27.68 34.01 2001-06-18 1.45 114.27 27.55 33.44 2001-06-19 1.44 114.84 26.67 33.66 2001-06-20 1.55 113.09 27.49 34.7 2001-06-21 1.61 112.6 27.27 34.92 2001-06-22 1.59 112.87 27.61 34.42 2001-06-25 1.71 112.65 28.58 34.42 2001-06-26 1.7 113.04 28.97 35.07 2001-06-27 1.67 113.52 28.65 35.57 2001-06-28 1.68 115.1 29.64 36.37 2001-06-29 1.66 113.5 29.25 36.5 2001-07-02 1.71 114.35 30.06 35.3 2001-07-03 1.7 112.98 30.46 35.24 2001-07-05 1.66 112.1 29.84 34.26 2001-07-06 1.57 106.5 28.43 33.03 2001-07-09 1.62 104.72 28.9 32.84 2001-07-10 1.51 101.96 27.79 32.24 2001-07-11 1.61 103.85 28.06 33.25 2001-07-12 1.74 107.25 30.1 35.8 2001-07-13 1.78 108.53 30.19 35.67 2001-07-16 1.71 107.82 29.13 35.59 2001-07-17 1.79 108.53 29.9 35.91 Page 1 qattachments_ce2872fa07c0c77faaa0614e6d1e35b817ea0a12 2001-07-18 2001-07-19 2001-07-20 2001-07-23 2001-07-24 2001-07-25 2001-07-26 2001-07-27 2001-07-30 2001-07-31 2001-08-01 2001-08-02 2001-08-03 2001-08-06 2001-08-07 2001-08-08 2001-08-09 2001-08-10 2001-08-13 2001-08-14 2001-08-15 2001-08-16 2001-08-17 2001-08-20 2001-08-21 2001-08-22 2001-08-23 2001-08-24 2001-08-27 2001-08-28 2001-08-29 2001-08-30 2001-08-31 2001-09-04 2001-09-05 2001-09-06 2001-09-07 2001-09-10 2001-09-17 2001-09-18 2001-09-19 2001-09-20 2001-09-21 2001-09-24 2001-09-25 2001-09-26 2001-09-27 2001-09-28 2001-10-01 2001-10-02 2001-10-03 2001-10-04 2001-10-05 1.48 1.43 1.43 1.4 1.36 1.32 1.33 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.36 1.42 1.39 1.37 1.38 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.33 1.29 1.29 1.28 1.3 1.27 1.33 1.35 1.31 1.27 1.27 1.33 1.3 1.32 1.27 1.23 1.24 1.21 1.16 1.22 1.12 1.12 1.17 1.11 1.08 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.08 1.07 1.13 1.15 104.28 104 105.7 105.85 104.51 104.89 106 104.7 105.85 105.21 107.06 108.8 108.18 106.51 106.25 104.19 104.08 104.95 105.86 106.2 105.01 105.75 104.59 104.1 101.89 103.96 103 106.99 106.86 104.95 104.13 100.36 99.95 101.49 100.35 98 96.59 96.47 93.34 96.4 96 93.4 90.5 94.8 94.45 91.3 90 91.72 92.71 93.77 96.95 97.31 98.02 28.89 29.96 29.93 29 28.88 29.42 29.83 29.22 29.04 29.81 30.75 32.11 31.68 30.28 30.62 29.61 29.65 29.95 30.56 30.35 29.78 30.16 28.07 28.2 27.07 27.96 27.67 29.08 29.15 28.51 28.1 27.13 27.96 26.85 27.47 26.1 25.89 26.07 23.59 23.47 22.28 20.67 19.3 21.31 21.68 20.9 20.55 20.39 20.01 19.52 21.23 21.55 21.96 35.28 36.28 34.59 33.54 33.16 33.67 33.3 32.74 32.9 33.09 33.24 33.72 33.45 33.07 33.18 32.43 32.5 32.76 32.92 32.34 31.6 32.31 30.94 31.35 30.39 30.33 29.56 31.03 31.16 30.37 30.12 28.47 28.53 28.05 28.87 28.01 27.7 28.79 26.46 27.16 26.93 25.38 24.86 26 25.65 25.14 24.98 25.58 25.89 26.53 28.12 28.22 28.86 Page 2 qattachments_ce2872fa07c0c77faaa0614e6d1e35b817ea0a12 2001-10-08 2001-10-09 2001-10-10 2001-10-11 2001-10-12 2001-10-15 2001-10-16 2001-10-17 2001-10-18 2001-10-19 2001-10-22 2001-10-23 2001-10-24 2001-10-25 2001-10-26 2001-10-29 2001-10-30 2001-10-31 2001-11-01 2001-11-02 2001-11-05 2001-11-06 2001-11-07 2001-11-08 2001-11-09 2001-11-12 2001-11-13 2001-11-14 2001-11-15 2001-11-16 2001-11-19 2001-11-20 2001-11-21 2001-11-23 2001-11-26 2001-11-27 2001-11-28 2001-11-29 2001-11-30 2001-12-03 2001-12-04 2001-12-05 2001-12-06 2001-12-07 2001-12-10 2001-12-11 2001-12-12 2001-12-13 2001-12-14 2001-12-17 2001-12-18 2001-12-19 2001-12-20 1.16 1.14 1.2 1.27 1.29 1.28 1.29 1.21 1.29 1.31 1.36 1.3 1.35 1.37 1.33 1.26 1.26 1.25 1.33 1.33 1.36 1.4 1.4 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.38 1.4 1.39 1.36 1.43 1.4 1.41 1.42 1.53 1.5 1.47 1.46 1.52 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.63 1.61 1.61 1.56 1.54 1.5 1.46 1.47 1.5 1.54 1.48 98.5 97.14 97.25 99.4 100.84 102 101.85 102.9 101.26 102.65 105.25 105.81 108.57 110.66 111.16 108.62 108.65 108.07 109.89 109.5 109.97 114.19 113.85 113.81 114.08 114.86 116.7 114.35 114.75 114.5 115 115.44 114.34 115.35 116.33 114.2 112.15 114.43 115.59 114.13 116.64 121.4 120.14 120.4 119.66 121.5 123.2 120.25 121.1 121.34 122.2 123.89 122.7 22.24 21.45 23.06 24.51 25 24.38 24.96 24.57 24.05 24.15 25.3 25 25.48 26.1 25.86 24.18 23.54 24.42 25.94 26.3 26.96 28.25 28.29 28.28 27.88 28.38 30.05 31.32 30.78 30.54 30.99 29.95 30.81 31.06 31.87 32.31 31.76 32.32 32.66 32.04 32.86 34.61 34.16 33.24 32.95 33.19 34.08 32.57 33.27 33.97 33.81 33.05 31.98 29.02 27.28 27.76 28.16 28.19 29.03 29.22 28.02 28.38 28.95 30.08 30.22 30.66 31.28 31.1 29.82 29.44 29.08 30.92 30.7 31.64 32.39 32.12 32.21 32.6 32.9 33.95 32.98 33.06 32.88 33.27 32.7 32.02 32.36 32.57 31.87 31.4 32.42 32.1 32.38 33 34.05 34.32 33.92 33.53 33.66 33.98 33.14 33.72 34.49 34.64 34.74 33.38 Page 3 qattachments_ce2872fa07c0c77faaa0614e6d1e35b817ea0a12 2001-12-21 2001-12-24 2001-12-26 2001-12-27 2001-12-28 2001-12-31 2002-01-02 2002-01-03 2002-01-04 2002-01-07 2002-01-08 2002-01-09 2002-01-10 2002-01-11 2002-01-14 2002-01-15 2002-01-16 2002-01-17 2002-01-18 2002-01-22 2002-01-23 2002-01-24 2002-01-25 2002-01-28 2002-01-29 2002-01-30 2002-01-31 2002-02-01 2002-02-04 2002-02-05 2002-02-06 2002-02-07 2002-02-08 2002-02-11 2002-02-12 2002-02-13 2002-02-14 2002-02-15 2002-02-19 2002-02-20 2002-02-21 2002-02-22 2002-02-25 2002-02-26 2002-02-27 2002-02-28 2002-03-01 2002-03-04 2002-03-05 2002-03-06 2002-03-07 2002-03-08 2002-03-11 1.5 1.53 1.54 1.58 1.6 1.56 1.66 1.68 1.69 1.64 1.62 1.55 1.52 1.5 1.51 1.55 1.48 1.61 1.58 1.56 1.64 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.65 1.72 1.77 1.74 1.81 1.82 1.76 1.74 1.72 1.78 1.76 1.79 1.76 1.71 1.62 1.65 1.54 1.62 1.7 1.69 1.57 1.55 1.68 1.74 1.68 1.72 1.74 1.76 1.79 122 121.45 122.4 123.5 122.9 120.96 121.5 123.66 125.6 124.05 124.7 124.49 122.14 120.31 118.05 118.85 117.4 119.9 114.25 110.5 107.9 108.72 109.28 108.15 103 105.55 107.89 108 106.8 106.3 106.63 103.91 104.99 107.38 106.57 108.07 107.89 102.89 99.54 99.31 96.38 98.45 98.3 97.15 97.83 98.12 103.02 105.9 105.67 106.3 103.71 105.09 105.24 32.41 32.02 32.29 32.67 32.24 31.45 33 35.52 35.79 35.27 35.58 35.36 34.65 34.55 34.84 34.68 33.71 34.53 33.48 31.7 32.45 33.2 33.68 33.92 32.68 33.86 35.04 34.67 33.98 33.8 32.92 32.31 32.52 33.57 32.97 33.36 33.5 32.29 31.34 31.44 29.48 29.53 31.02 30.02 29.89 28.55 30.98 31.85 32.7 32.96 32.98 34.17 33.42 33.77 33.64 33.84 33.92 33.94 33.12 33.52 34.62 34.45 34.28 34.69 34.36 34.64 34.3 34.24 34.78 33.94 34.93 33.05 32.23 31.87 32.33 31.9 31.91 31.16 31.42 31.86 31.33 30.56 30.58 30.2 29.9 30.32 30.56 30.07 30.91 30.8 30.12 29.42 29.95 29.02 29 29.54 29.28 29.2 29.17 30.68 31.6 31.54 31.82 31.36 31.98 32.17 Page 4 qattachments_ce2872fa07c0c77faaa0614e6d1e35b817ea0a12 2002-03-12 2002-03-13 2002-03-14 2002-03-15 2002-03-18 2002-03-19 2002-03-20 2002-03-21 2002-03-22 2002-03-25 2002-03-26 2002-03-27 2002-03-28 2002-04-01 2002-04-02 2002-04-03 2002-04-04 2002-04-05 2002-04-08 2002-04-09 2002-04-10 2002-04-11 2002-04-12 2002-04-15 2002-04-16 2002-04-17 2002-04-18 2002-04-19 2002-04-22 2002-04-23 2002-04-24 2002-04-25 2002-04-26 2002-04-29 2002-04-30 2002-05-01 2002-05-02 2002-05-03 2002-05-06 2002-05-07 2002-05-08 2002-05-09 2002-05-10 2002-05-13 2002-05-14 2002-05-15 2002-05-16 2002-05-17 2002-05-20 2002-05-21 2002-05-22 2002-05-23 2002-05-24 1.77 1.75 1.74 1.78 1.77 1.78 1.78 1.73 1.72 1.67 1.68 1.68 1.69 1.75 1.72 1.7 1.78 1.77 1.75 1.72 1.76 1.78 1.79 1.79 1.84 1.86 1.82 1.78 1.75 1.73 1.7 1.72 1.64 1.71 1.73 1.71 1.69 1.68 1.62 1.6 1.74 1.73 1.67 1.71 1.83 1.81 1.8 1.79 1.77 1.68 1.74 1.8 1.72 108.5 107.18 106.6 106.79 106.35 107.49 105.5 106.78 105.6 103.56 102.9 103.39 104 102.86 101.01 99.96 100.84 97.25 87.41 87.74 89.01 84.19 85.6 85.35 86.2 84.81 88.95 89 87.93 87.33 86.5 86.71 84.71 83.89 83.76 84.3 83.86 81.78 76 76.5 82.45 79.93 79.68 82.19 85.48 84.5 85.45 85.69 84.45 83.45 84 84.35 83.1 32.99 31.34 30.97 31.74 31.62 31.72 30.53 31.4 30.59 30 30.77 30.41 30.41 31.17 30.03 29.87 30.59 30.05 29.93 28.46 29.26 28.94 28.39 28.11 29.51 30.64 30.45 30.1 30.06 29.54 28.91 29.09 28.12 28.04 28.61 28.63 27.87 26.56 25.78 26.15 28.98 28.24 27.01 28.52 30.15 30.24 30.77 31.2 30.19 29.07 29.59 29.39 28.66 31.27 31.05 30.61 31.24 31.07 31.12 30.05 30.68 30.22 29.62 29.54 29.72 30.16 30.19 28.65 28.16 28.22 27.94 28.61 27.44 28.15 27.4 27.96 27.84 28.9 28.32 28.18 28.6 27.8 27 26.51 26.86 25.75 26.12 26.13 26.38 25.6 24.78 24.31 24.74 27.48 26.06 25.02 26.34 27.44 27.38 27.87 28.02 27 26.1 26.84 27.41 26.63 Page 5 qattachments_ce2872fa07c0c77faaa0614e6d1e35b817ea0a12 2002-05-28 2002-05-29 2002-05-30 2002-05-31 2002-06-03 2002-06-04 2002-06-05 2002-06-06 2002-06-07 2002-06-10 2002-06-11 2002-06-12 2002-06-13 2002-06-14 2002-06-17 2002-06-18 2002-06-19 2002-06-20 2002-06-21 2002-06-24 2002-06-25 2002-06-26 2002-06-27 2002-06-28 2002-07-01 2002-07-02 2002-07-03 2002-07-05 2002-07-08 2002-07-09 2002-07-10 2002-07-11 2002-07-12 2002-07-15 2002-07-16 2002-07-17 2002-07-18 2002-07-19 2002-07-22 2002-07-23 2002-07-24 2002-07-25 2002-07-26 2002-07-29 2002-07-30 2002-07-31 2002-08-01 2002-08-02 2002-08-05 2002-08-06 2002-08-07 2002-08-08 2002-08-09 1.71 1.71 1.73 1.66 1.64 1.63 1.62 1.58 1.53 1.53 1.46 1.44 1.4 1.44 1.47 1.44 1.22 1.22 1.2 1.23 1.22 1.18 1.22 1.27 1.22 1.21 1.25 1.34 1.29 1.25 1.24 1.31 1.25 1.3 1.28 1.12 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.03 1.09 1.03 1.02 1.07 1.1 1.09 1.06 1.03 1 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.07 82.08 81.6 82.25 80.45 78.11 79.31 80.55 79.66 78.3 76.8 75.49 74.65 75.6 76.17 77.14 75.94 73.35 71.58 68.75 69.7 68.6 70.05 71.9 72 67.6 68.58 70.51 73.5 71.3 69.67 68.76 69.41 69.21 70.93 69.01 70.69 72.05 72 68.5 67.05 69.54 69.35 66.4 71.18 71.79 70.4 68.25 67.88 65.99 67.9 69.12 71.61 71.83 28.35 27.27 27.42 27.62 26.62 27.5 28.18 27 22 21.07 20.22 21.58 21.11 21.28 22.56 22.02 20.09 19.24 18.73 19.33 18.32 18.61 18.65 18.27 17.54 16.57 17.75 19.54 18.5 17.96 16.81 18.25 17.99 19.12 18.36 19.44 19.19 18.65 18.26 17.81 18.7 17.48 17.81 18.89 18.97 18.79 17.56 16.71 15.88 17.13 17.72 18.38 17.86 26.16 26.02 26.32 25.46 24.71 24.99 25.83 25.95 25.99 26.41 26.28 27.77 27.11 27.62 27.84 28 27.18 27.05 26.14 27.08 26.48 27.06 27.46 27.35 26.33 25.72 26.24 27.42 26.46 26.6 26.12 26.46 25.93 25.9 25.62 26 25.56 24.78 23.14 21.5 23.12 21.42 22.68 24.12 24.05 23.99 22.88 22.2 22 22.84 23.54 24.46 24.06 Page 6 qattachments_ce2872fa07c0c77faaa0614e6d1e35b817ea0a12 2002-08-12 2002-08-13 2002-08-14 2002-08-15 2002-08-16 2002-08-19 2002-08-20 2002-08-21 2002-08-22 2002-08-23 2002-08-26 2002-08-27 2002-08-28 2002-08-29 2002-08-30 2002-09-03 2002-09-04 2002-09-05 2002-09-06 2002-09-09 2002-09-10 2002-09-11 2002-09-12 2002-09-13 2002-09-16 2002-09-17 2002-09-18 2002-09-19 2002-09-20 2002-09-23 2002-09-24 2002-09-25 2002-09-26 2002-09-27 2002-09-30 2002-10-01 2002-10-02 2002-10-03 2002-10-04 2002-10-07 2002-10-08 2002-10-09 2002-10-10 2002-10-11 2002-10-14 2002-10-15 2002-10-16 2002-10-17 2002-10-18 2002-10-21 2002-10-22 2002-10-23 2002-10-24 1.07 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.12 1.11 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.05 1 1.03 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.04 1.06 1.07 1.04 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.01 1.02 1 0.98 0.98 0.97 1.01 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.04 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.05 71.77 71.9 74.92 76.5 79.35 82.49 81.27 81 81.99 80.4 79.42 77.96 76.06 76.62 75.38 72.35 73.73 72.18 73.2 74.5 75.6 74.2 71.87 72.5 72.32 71.75 69.55 64.8 63.92 63.37 59.75 63.01 62.02 60.36 58.31 61.17 59.63 60 56.6 56.86 57.05 55.07 57.58 63.92 63.42 68.48 64.9 72.2 74.25 75.55 74.49 74.6 72.1 17.53 16.7 18.29 18.65 18.75 19.46 18.97 19.59 19.15 17.96 18.13 17.18 16.84 17.14 16.67 15.86 16.11 15.11 16.22 16.08 16.47 16.62 15.7 16.03 15.7 15.57 15.28 14.98 14.9 14.13 14.34 15.2 15.15 14.62 13.89 14.67 14.3 13.84 13.71 13.82 13.22 13.46 14.18 15.22 15.1 16.52 13.54 14.23 14.46 15.45 15.12 16.16 15.63 24.24 23.53 24.86 24.88 25 26 25.52 26.14 26.62 26.11 26.05 25.42 24.69 25.29 24.54 23.51 24.1 22.96 23.91 24.35 24.9 24.29 23.58 23.96 23.89 23.64 23.88 23.6 23.73 22.62 22.84 23.26 23.1 22.62 21.87 23.12 22.8 22.36 21.88 22.02 22.5 22 23.19 24.44 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81.54 78.95 77.59 77.29 79.15 79.35 80.72 80.01 79.18 78.37 81.61 84.9 84.43 86.2 85.06 87.7 87.1 87.3 85.21 83.69 83.06 82.32 79.59 80.8 81.44 80.17 80 81.62 80.31 79.13 78.66 79.79 80.26 79.76 78.5 77.36 76.25 77.5 80.57 81.65 83.59 86 84.19 87 87.68 16.59 16.81 16.38 16.99 17.3 18.3 18.77 18.3 19.15 18.44 18.15 17.34 17.79 18.12 19.21 18.8 18.55 18.15 19.15 20.21 20.05 20.48 20.2 20.9 20.88 21.05 20.31 19.74 18.96 18.71 17.68 18.13 18.16 18.19 17.58 18.22 17.89 17.13 17 17.01 17.21 16.78 16.69 16.4 15.76 15.57 16.69 16.54 17.18 17.36 16.68 17.06 17.42 26.34 25.98 26.04 26.56 26.74 26.5 28.05 28.32 28.52 28 27.55 26.93 27.26 27.68 28.5 28.34 27.92 27.42 28.31 28.92 29.11 29.12 28.45 29.04 28.84 28.84 28.36 28.27 27.67 27.74 26.76 27 27.33 27.08 26.25 27.24 27.18 26.76 26.56 26.52 27 26.91 26.7 26.48 26.38 25.85 26.86 26.9 27.38 27.9 27.12 27.9 27.96 Page 8 qattachments_ce2872fa07c0c77faaa0614e6d1e35b817ea0a12 2003-01-13 2003-01-14 2003-01-15 2003-01-16 2003-01-17 2003-01-21 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