CPI inflation in India rose to 4.9% y-o-y in November from 4.5% in October, below expectations (5.1%), with a downside surprise in food and fuel price inflation, but core inflation rose further to 6.1% from 5.9%, signalling rising underlying price pressures. The cut in excise duties on fuel was offset by higher price increases in personal care, clothing, recreation and households goods and services in the CPI basket, suggesting pressures due to rising input cost pass-through and reopening.

Source: Economic Times (2021)

In this context, suppose people in India anticipate an increase in the expected price level.

a) Determine whether the event shifts aggregate demand (AD) or aggregate supply (AS).

(6 marks)

b) Use the AD-AS model to determine the short-run and long-run effects on India's GDP, price level, and unemployment. (14 marks)