Question
create the following worksheets for Target Corporation Company from the year 2014 to 2016: 1. discounted cash flow worksheet and analysis 2. pro forma worksheet
create the following worksheets for Target Corporation Company from the year 2014 to 2016:
1. discounted cash flow worksheet and analysis
2. pro forma worksheet and analysis
Annual Financials for Target Corp. Cash FLow Analysis
Operating Activities
Fiscal year is February-January. All values USD millions. | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 5-year trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Income before Extraordinaries | 3B | 2.69B | (1.64B) | 3.36B | 2.74B | |
Net Income Growth | - | -10.17% | -160.73% | 305.56% | -18.61% | |
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization | 2.14B | 2B | 2.13B | 2.21B | 2.3B | |
Depreciation and Depletion | 2.12B | 1.98B | 2.11B | 2.19B | 2.28B | |
Amortization of Intangible Assets | 22M | 20M | 22M | 23M | 18M | |
Deferred Taxes & Investment Tax Credit | (14M) | 58M | 7M | (322M) | 41M | |
Deferred Taxes | (14M) | 58M | 7M | (322M) | 41M | |
Investment Tax Credit | - | - | - | - | - | |
Other Funds | 164M | (718M) | 3.79B | 145M | 574M | |
Funds from Operations | 5.29B | 4.03B | 4.29B | 5.4B | 5.65B | |
Extraordinaries | - | - | - | - | - | |
Changes in Working Capital | 34M | 2.49B | 150M | 445M | (214M) | |
Receivables | (217M) | 157M | - | - | - | |
Accounts Payable | 199M | 213M | 777M | 534M | (543M) | |
Other Assets/Liabilities | (101M) | 2.62B | (115M) | 227M | 36M | |
Net Operating Cash Flow | 5.33B | 6.52B | 4.44B | 5.84B | 5.44B | |
Net Operating Cash Flow Growth | - | 22.44% | -31.92% | 31.65% | -6.98% | |
Net Operating Cash Flow / Sales | 7.26% | 9.15% | 6.11% | 7.92% | 7.82% |
Investing Activities
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 5-year trend | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital Expenditures | (3.28B) | (1.89B) | (1.79B) | (1.44B) | (1.55B) | |
Capital Expenditures (Fixed Assets) | (3.28B) | (1.89B) | (1.79B) | (1.44B) | (1.55B) | |
Capital Expenditures (Other Assets) | - | - | - | - | - | |
Capital Expenditures Growth | - | 42.45% | 5.30% | 19.48% | -7.58% | |
Capital Expenditures / Sales | -4.47% | -2.65% | -2.46% | -1.95% | -2.23% | |
Net Assets from Acquisitions | - | (157M) | (20M) | - | - | |
Sale of Fixed Assets & Businesses | 66M | 70M | 95M | 1.9B | 46M | |
Purchase/Sale of Investments | 102M | 130M | 106M | 24M | 28M | |
Purchase of Investments | - | - | - | - | - | |
Sale/Maturity of Investments | 102M | 130M | 106M | 24M | 28M | |
Other Uses | - | (1.55B) | (321M) | - | - | |
Other Sources | 254M | 3.12B | - | 19M | - | |
Net Investing Cash Flow | (2.86B) | (271M) | (1.93B) | 508M | (1.47B) | |
Net Investing Cash Flow Growth | - | 90.51% | -610.70% | 126.38% | -389.96% | |
Net Investing Cash Flow / Sales | -3.89% | -0.38% | -2.65% | 0.69% | -2.12% |
Financing Activities
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 5-year trend | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash Dividends Paid - Total | (869M) | (1.01B) | (1.21B) | (1.36B) | (1.35B) | |
Common Dividends | (869M) | (1.01B) | (1.21B) | (1.36B) | (1.35B) | |
Preferred Dividends | - | - | - | - | - | |
Change in Capital Stock | (1.52B) | (1.46B) | - | (3.44B) | (3.49B) | |
Repurchase of Common & Preferred Stk. | (1.88B) | (1.46B) | - | (3.44B) | (3.71B) | |
Sale of Common & Preferred Stock | 360M | - | - | - | 221M | |
Proceeds from Stock Options | - | - | - | - | - | |
Other Proceeds from Sale of Stock | 360M | - | - | - | 221M | |
Issuance/Reduction of Debt, Net | (88M) | (4.35B) | (166M) | (85M) | (664M) | |
Change in Current Debt | (530M) | (890M) | (80M) | - | - | |
Change in Long-Term Debt | 442M | (3.46B) | (86M) | (85M) | (664M) | |
Issuance of Long-Term Debt | 1.97B | - | 1.99B | - | 1.98B | |
Reduction in Long-Term Debt | (1.53B) | (3.46B) | (2.08B) | (85M) | (2.64B) | |
Other Funds | (16M) | 456M | 373M | 369M | - | |
Other Uses | (16M) | - | - | - | - | |
Other Sources | - | 456M | 373M | 369M | - | |
Net Financing Cash Flow | (2.49B) | (6.36B) | (998M) | (4.52B) | (5.5B) | |
Net Financing Cash Flow Growth | - | -155.79% | 84.32% | -352.51% | -21.72% | |
Net Financing Cash Flow / Sales | -3.39% | -8.93% | -1.37% | -6.12% | -7.91% | |
Exchange Rate Effect | 8M | 26M | - | - | - | |
Miscellaneous Funds | - | - | - | - | - | |
Net Change in Cash | (10M) | (89M) | 1.52B | 1.84B | (1.53B) | |
Free Cash Flow | 2.05B | 4.63B | 2.65B | 4.41B | 3.89B | |
Free Cash Flow Growth | - | 126.27% | -42.75% | 66.08% | -11.73% | |
Free Cash Flow Yield | - | - | - | - | 6.85% | NA |
Target Corp., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast
USD $ in millions, except per share data
Year | Value | FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at 7.14% |
---|---|---|---|---|
01 | FCFF0 | 4,262 | ||
1 | FCFF1 | 4,498 | = 4,262 (1 + 5.53%) | 4,198 |
2 | FCFF2 | 4,656 | = 4,498 (1 + 3.51%) | 4,056 |
3 | FCFF3 | 4,725 | = 4,656 (1 + 1.49%) | 3,843 |
4 | FCFF4 | 4,701 | = 4,725 (1 + -0.52%) | 3,568 |
5 | FCFF5 | 4,581 | = 4,701 (1 + -2.54%) | 3,246 |
5 | Terminal value (TV5) | 46,149 | = 4,581 (1 + -2.54%) (7.14% -2.54%) | 32,696 |
Intrinsic value of Target's capital | 51,607 | |||
Less: Debt (fair value) | 13,570 | |||
Intrinsic value of Target's common stock | 38,037 | |||
Intrinsic value of Target's common stock (per share) | $68.94 | |||
Current share price | $53.23 |
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Target Corp., cost of capital
1 USD $ in millions
Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding Current share price = 551,708,283 $53.23 = $29,367,431,904.09
Debt (fair value). See Details
2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See Details
Required rate of return on debt. See Details
Required rate of return on debt is after tax.
Estimated (average) effective income tax rate = (32.70% + 32.50% + 33.00% + 36.50% + 34.90% + 34.30%) 6 = 33.98%
WACC = 7.14%
FCFF Growth Rate (g)
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Target Corp., PRAT model
Average | Jan 28, 2017 | Jan 30, 2016 | Jan 31, 2015 | Feb 1, 2014 | Feb 2, 2013 | Jan 28, 2012 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected Financial Data (USD $ in millions) | ||||||||
Net interest expense | 1,004 | 607 | 882 | 1,126 | 762 | 866 | ||
Discontinued operations, net of tax | 68 | 42 | (4,085) | |||||
Net earnings (loss) | 2,737 | 3,363 | (1,636) | 1,971 | 2,999 | 2,929 | ||
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 | 32.70% | 32.50% | 33.00% | 36.50% | 34.90% | 34.30% | ||
Net interest expense, after tax2 | 676 | 410 | 591 | 715 | 496 | 569 | ||
Add: Dividends declared | 1,359 | 1,378 | 1,273 | 1,051 | 903 | 777 | ||
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends | 2,035 | 1,788 | 1,864 | 1,766 | 1,399 | 1,346 | ||
EBIT(1 EITR)3 | 3,345 | 3,731 | 3,040 | 2,686 | 3,495 | 3,498 | ||
Current portion of long-term debt and other borrowings | 1,718 | 815 | 91 | 1,160 | 2,994 | 3,786 | ||
Long-term debt and other borrowings, excluding current portion | 11,031 | 11,945 | 12,705 | 12,622 | 14,654 | 13,697 | ||
Shareholders' investment | 10,953 | 12,957 | 13,997 | 16,231 | 16,558 | 15,821 | ||
Total capital | 23,702 | 25,717 | 26,793 | 30,013 | 34,206 | 33,304 | ||
Ratios | ||||||||
Retention rate (RR)4 | 0.39 | 0.52 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 0.60 | 0.62 | ||
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 | 14.11% | 14.51% | 11.35% | 8.95% | 10.22% | 10.50% | ||
Averages | ||||||||
RR | 0.48 | |||||||
ROIC | 11.61% | |||||||
Growth rate of FCFF (g)6 | 5.53% |
2017 Calculations
2 Net interest expense, after tax = Net interest expense (1 EITR) = 1,004 (1 32.70%) = 676
3 EBIT(1 EITR) = Net earnings (loss) Discontinued operations, net of tax + Net interest expense, after tax = 2,737 68 + 676 = 3,345
4 RR = [EBIT(1 EITR) Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] EBIT(1 EITR) = [3,345 2,035] 3,345 = 0.39
5 ROIC = 100 EBIT(1 EITR) Total capital = 100 3,345 23,702 = 14.11%
6 g = RR ROIC = 0.48 11.61% = 5.53%
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model
g = 100 (Total capital, fair value0 WACC FCFF0) (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0) = 100 (42,937 7.14% 4,262) (42,937 + 4,262) = -2.54%
where: Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Target's debt and equity (USD $ in millions) FCFF0 = last year Target's free cash flow to the firm (USD $ in millions) WACC = weighted average cost of Target's capital
FCFF growth rate (g) forecast
Target Corp., H-model
Year | Value | gt |
---|---|---|
1 | g1 | 5.53% |
2 | g2 | 3.51% |
3 | g3 | 1.49% |
4 | g4 | -0.52% |
5 and thereafter | g5 | -2.54% |
where: g1 is implied by PRAT model g5 is implied by single-stage model g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 g1) (2 1) (5 1) = 5.53% + (-2.54% 5.53%) (2 1) (5 1) = 3.51%
g3 = g1 + (g5 g1) (3 1) (5 1) = 5.53% + (-2.54% 5.53%) (3 1) (5 1) = 1.49%
g4 = g1 + (g5 g1) (4 1) (5 1) = 5.53% + (-2.54% 5.53%) (4 1) (5 1) = -0.52%
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