Cutting Edge Systems (CES) designs and distributes a variety of management software products online and through various retail outlets located across Canada. CES is considering the development of an Internet-based forecasting system that is specifically designed for new start-up and small businesses and has entrusted you to assume the role of project manager.

After consulting with technical staff and reviewing archival data from similar projects completed in the past, Table 1was constructed to summarize the task descriptions, time estimates, and precedence relationships.

Table 1: Project Description and Time Estimates (in Weeks)

Task	Description	Optimistic	Likely	Pessimistic	Predecessor
A	Determine requirements	2	3	4	None
B	Market assessment	4	7	10	A
C	Design	4	6	8	A
D	Development	6	7	8	C
E	Testing	7	9	11	C
F	Revising	4	5	6	B
G	Documentation	3	6	9	D
H	Quality assurance	2	4	6	E
I	Pricing	2	3	4	B
J	Production	4	4	4	F, G, H, I
K	Distribution	2	3	4	J

CES plans to use existing software components during the development phase as a means of keeping project costs and overall timeframe within bounds. Nevertheless, multiple task time estimates are formulated to better account for the inherent uncertainties associated with software development.

CES' management team has established a completion target of 27 weeks for this project. A preliminary assessment indicates that some of the project tasks would need to be shortened to meet this desired project deadline. Accordingly, a set of task-crashing estimates (shown in Table 2) has been prepared.

You know that this is an important project to manage and that you must have a thorough analysis to estimate the project's completion time and budget before presenting your findings/recommendations in a business report.

Table 2: Project Crash Data

Task	Normal Cost ($000)	Crash Cost ($000)	Allowable Crash Time (Weeks)
A	10	Not Applicable	0
B	20	25	1
C	15	30	1
D	45	65	1
E	10	25	1
F	15	18	1
G	20	28	2
H	10	15	1
I	5	10	1
J	40	50	1
K	15	18	1

Note:

1. When a task is crashed by a week, the optimistic estimate, most likely estimate, and the pessimistic estimate all decrease by a week. If multiple critical paths exist, select the path with the highest variance (standard deviation) to use in probability calculations so that uncertainty is better accounted for.
2. In Table 2, "Normal Cost" is the cost to complete the task using "Normal Time", Crash Cost is the cost to complete the task using "Crash Time". "Crash Time" = "Normal Time" - "Allowable Crash Time". Hence, you can calculate the additional cost (vs. Normal Cost) to expedite the task by one week.

Assignment Questions:

1. For the "Normal" scenario,
   1. What is the critical path(s) and estimated completion time for this project?
   2. What is the estimated project cost?
   3. What is the probability that the project can be completed in 27 weeks with this project plan?

2. Suppose that the cost of being late to the market is estimated to be $30,000 per week if the project completion time exceeds 27 weeks. Determine the most "Cost-Effective" project completion time.

a)Which task(s) would you recommend crashing (and how) to achieve this cheapest completion time and why?

b)What is the probability of completing the project in 27 weeks with this project plan?