D E F G H K Statistics Unit Variable Cost Lower Limit Probability 0.15 0.35 0.30 0.20 Upper Limit Cost per Unit $17,000 $19,000 $20,000 $22.000 Sample Size Mean Profit Standard Deviation Minimum Profit Maximum Profit Count of Positive Profits Count of Profits > 100 mil Probability of Positive Profit Probability of Profit > 100 mil d) 0 1 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Recommendation? (Selling price Unit VC) Dmd - FC (3) (7) Fixed Cost Demand Profit 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 20 29 30 1016 1017 1010 1019 1020 1021 1022 1023 1024 1025 1026 1027 1028 1021 1030 1031 1022 (4) (5) Random Unit Variable Number Cost 0.611 0443 0.970 0.253 0.191 0495 0 696 0.441 0.068 0.140 0.509 0509 0.500 0.091 0.229 (6) Random Number 0.652 0.331 0.154 0.683 0.600 0192 0.373 0.909 0.461 0.175 0.075 0.985 0 777 0.421 0.936 > safer to stay in Protected View Enable Editing K M N O P Statistics GM is trying to deci $32,000. The fixed cost of de and $1.1 billion. The demand for the standard deviation o The unit variable cost . Sample Size Mean Profit Standard Deviation Minimum Profit Maximum Profit Count of Positive Profits Count of Profits >= 100 mil Probability of Positive Profit Probability of Prolit >- 100 mil d) Cost per Unit $17,000 $19,000 $20,000 $22,000 Probe 0.15 0.35 0.30 0.20 Recommendation? ace - Unit VC) Dmd - FC (8) (a) Simulate the profit (b) What are the mean (c) GM is willing to intro least 85% probability of make a recommendatio Profit O P R S T U V w GM is trying to decide whether to introduce a new car model. The selling price for the car will be $32,000 The fixed cost of developing the car is assumed to be uniformly distributed between $500 million and $1.1 billion. The demand for the car is described by a normal distribution with a mean of 120,000 units and a standard deviation of 30,000. The unit variable cost for the car is distributed as shown below. Cost per Unit Probability $17,000 0.15 $19,000 0.35 $20,000 0.30 $22,000 0.20 (a) Simulate the profit with 1000 trials. Express all the S amounts including profit in Sthousands. (b) What are the mean and standard deviation of the profit from the simulation? (c) GM is willing to introduce the car if there is at least 95% probability of making a profit AND at least 85% probability of making profit of at least $100 million. Compute these two probabilities and make a recommendation. D E F G H K Statistics Unit Variable Cost Lower Limit Probability 0.15 0.35 0.30 0.20 Upper Limit Cost per Unit $17,000 $19,000 $20,000 $22.000 Sample Size Mean Profit Standard Deviation Minimum Profit Maximum Profit Count of Positive Profits Count of Profits > 100 mil Probability of Positive Profit Probability of Profit > 100 mil d) 0 1 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Recommendation? (Selling price Unit VC) Dmd - FC (3) (7) Fixed Cost Demand Profit 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 20 29 30 1016 1017 1010 1019 1020 1021 1022 1023 1024 1025 1026 1027 1028 1021 1030 1031 1022 (4) (5) Random Unit Variable Number Cost 0.611 0443 0.970 0.253 0.191 0495 0 696 0.441 0.068 0.140 0.509 0509 0.500 0.091 0.229 (6) Random Number 0.652 0.331 0.154 0.683 0.600 0192 0.373 0.909 0.461 0.175 0.075 0.985 0 777 0.421 0.936 > safer to stay in Protected View Enable Editing K M N O P Statistics GM is trying to deci $32,000. The fixed cost of de and $1.1 billion. The demand for the standard deviation o The unit variable cost . Sample Size Mean Profit Standard Deviation Minimum Profit Maximum Profit Count of Positive Profits Count of Profits >= 100 mil Probability of Positive Profit Probability of Prolit >- 100 mil d) Cost per Unit $17,000 $19,000 $20,000 $22,000 Probe 0.15 0.35 0.30 0.20 Recommendation? ace - Unit VC) Dmd - FC (8) (a) Simulate the profit (b) What are the mean (c) GM is willing to intro least 85% probability of make a recommendatio Profit O P R S T U V w GM is trying to decide whether to introduce a new car model. The selling price for the car will be $32,000 The fixed cost of developing the car is assumed to be uniformly distributed between $500 million and $1.1 billion. The demand for the car is described by a normal distribution with a mean of 120,000 units and a standard deviation of 30,000. The unit variable cost for the car is distributed as shown below. Cost per Unit Probability $17,000 0.15 $19,000 0.35 $20,000 0.30 $22,000 0.20 (a) Simulate the profit with 1000 trials. Express all the S amounts including profit in Sthousands. (b) What are the mean and standard deviation of the profit from the simulation? (c) GM is willing to introduce the car if there is at least 95% probability of making a profit AND at least 85% probability of making profit of at least $100 million. Compute these two probabilities and make a recommendation