D4.1: [The bond market and recessions]

Go to the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) (research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/) and download and graph the data series for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note (GS10) from January 1, 2000 until December 31, 2022. Go to the Web site of the National Bureau of Economic Research (nber. org) and find the dates for business cycle peaks and troughs. (The period between a business cycle peak and trough is a recession.) Describe how the interest rate on the10-year note moves just before, during, and just after a recession. Is the pattern the same across recessions? D4.5: [Find data on expected inflation from bond yields]

Go to the web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED (research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/) and find January 1, 2023 values and values from the same month five years earlier for the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (GS10), and the 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity (FII10). Using these data, explain what has happened to expected inflation between these two periods.