Dalian, a port in Northeast China, pictured on the cover of this book, has become a focal point in the trade wars between the US and China. The Peak Pegasus, a cargo ship carrying 70,000 tonnes of American soya beans, set sail from Seattle, Wash-ington on 8 June 2018, for a month's voyage to China. As it was approaching the harbour at Dalian, the Chinese government announced new tariffs of 25% on its cargo. These were in response to tariffs announced on Chinese goods exported to the US. The new tariffs would add $6 million to the cost the importer would have to pay for the ship's cargo. The deal fell through, and the ship was left circling aimlessly outside the harbour. Each day that went by cost the owners $12,500. After a month of idling, the Peak Pegasus eventu-ally docked in Dalian, the owners of the cargo having negotiated a deal with the Chinese buyers. In the space of two decades, China has become the world's biggest importer of soya beans, used mainly in animal feed for its pork industry. This demand is driven by the rise in meat consumption by China's growing middle class: meat consumption has more than doubled, from 20kg per person to 50kg since the late 1980s. Soya beans are the preferred protein-rich source of feed for livestock, but domestic production would run out after only six weeks. The US farming industry has tapped into this demand, exporting soya beans worth $12 billion in 2017, which is about 60% of US soya bean exports. By November 2018, imports of soya beans from the US to China had fallen to zero. Instead, China shifted to importing soya beans from Brazil, which also has a large agribusiness sector. In November, imports from Brazil amounted to 5.07 million tonnes, up 80% from the same month in 2017. In December, as Brazilian supplies were beginning to diminish, China resumed buying US soya beans, after a truce was agreed with the US, but tariffs were still in place. Meanwhile, China has been exploring ways of altering its feed to pigs, to reduce the amount of soya beans needed (see the recommended article below). Chinese experts feel that increasing imports from Brazil and adjusting the soya bean content of animal feed will free them from reliance on US farms. Chinese leaders are well aware that US soya bean farmers are concentrated in rural regions that have been loyal supporters of President Trump. In July 2018, the US government allocated a package of $12 billion for payments to US farmers of soya beans, as well as wheat, corn, cotton and other crops. In 2019, an even larger payment of $16 billion was allocated in subsidies to US farmers. For over two decades, US farmers had made significant investments in shifting their focus to soya beans for the Chinese market, only to find it had evaporated overnight. The US has strong reasons to urge the Chinese to reduce their tariffs on American agricultural imports.

q1. Looking at all the parties in this case, who are the winners, if any, and who are the losers? Explain your reasons.

q2. Are US farmers likely to turn against the US president as a result of his trade policies?