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Dante Development Corporation is considering bidding on a contract for a new office building complex The following figure shows the decision tree prepared by one
Dante Development Corporation is considering bidding on a contract for a new office building complex The following figure shows the decision tree prepared by one of Dante's analysts. At node 1, the company must decide whether to bid on the contract. The cost of preparing the bid is $200,000. The upper branch from node 2 shows that the company has a 0,8 probability of winning the contract if it submits a bid. Tf the company wins the bid, it will have to pay $2 million to become a partner in the project. Node 3 shows that the company will then consider doing it market research study to forecast demand for the office units prior to beginning construction. The cost of this study is $150,000. Node 4 is chance nede showing the possible cutcome of the market research study Nodes 5, 6, and are similar in that they are the decision modes for Dante to either build the office complex or sell the nights in the project to another developer. The decision to build the complex will result in an income of $5 million i demandes high and $3 million if demand is moderate. If Dante chooses to sell its rights in the project to another developer, income from the sale is estimated to be $1.5 million. The probabilities shown at modes 4,3 m 9 are based on the projected outcomes of the market research study. Profit (SK) High Demand 2.650 0.35 Moderate Demand 650 0.15 Build Complex Forecast High 0.6 Sell E.150 Market Research 4) High Demand 0.225 2.650 Bulk Complex Foca Moderate 0.4 Morate Demand 0.773 650 Sell Win Contract 0.8 1.150 High Demand 0.6 2.800 Build Comples Bid Na Market Research Moderate bemand 04 Sell 1.300 Low Contract 02 -200 Do Nox Bed 1. Verify Dante's profit projections shown at the ending branches of the decision tree by calculating the payoffs of $2,650,000, S650,000, and $1,150,000 for first three outcomes. 2. What is the optimal decision strategy for Dante, and what is the expected profit for this project 3. What would the cost of the market research study have to be before Dante would change its decision about the market research study
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