DATA 1 row prior to shot) (# of misses in a row prior to shot 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 3 0 1 0 1 # of shots following 1 make #of shots made following 1 make 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 conditional probability given 1 ma 0.5192307692 # of shots following 2 makes # of shots made following 2 makes 0 0 conditional probability given 2 ma 0.5185185185 # of shots following 3 makes # of shots made following 3 makes 0 0 conditional probability given 3 ma 0.4285714286 # of shots following a miss # of shots made following a miss 0 0 conditional probability given 1 mi 0.5106382979 # of shots following 2 misses # of shots made following 2 misse 0 0 conditional probability given 2 mi 0.5454545455 # of shots following 3 misses # of shots made following 3 misse 0 0 conditional probability given 3 mi 0.4444444444 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 4 3 5 3 5 3 6 3 6 3 7 4 2 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 8 5 9 5 9 5 10 5 10 5 10 5 4 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 0 5 0 0 0 1 11 6 12 7 13 8 14 9 15 9 15 9 5 2 6 3 7 4 8 5 9 5 9 5 2 0 2 0 3 1 4 2 5 2 5 2 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 7 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 15 9 15 9 16 9 16 9 17 9 17 9 9 5 9 5 9 5 9 5 9 5 9 5 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 5 2 8 5 9 6 9 6 10 7 10 7 11 8 2 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 0 4 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 18 10 19 11 20 12 21 12 21 12 22 12 9 5 10 6 11 7 12 7 12 7 12 7 5 2 5 2 6 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 11 8 11 8 11 8 11 8 12 9 12 9 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 22 12 22 12 23 12 23 12 23 12 23 12 12 7 12 7 12 7 12 7 12 7 12 7 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 13 9 14 10 14 10 15 10 16 10 17 10 3 2 4 3 4 3 4 3 5 3 6 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 23 12 24 13 25 13 25 13 25 13 26 13 12 7 12 7 13 7 13 7 13 7 13 7 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 18 11 18 11 18 11 19 11 20 12 20 12 7 4 7 4 7 4 7 4 8 5 8 5 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 26 13 26 13 26 13 26 13 26 13 26 13 13 7 13 7 13 7 13 7 13 7 13 7 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 7 3 21 12 22 12 23 12 24 12 25 12 26 12 8 5 9 5 10 5 11 5 12 5 13 5 3 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 1 0 7 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 0 5 0 26 13 27 14 28 15 29 16 30 17 31 17 13 7 13 7 14 8 15 9 16 10 17 10 7 3 7 3 7 3 8 4 9 5 10 5 27 13 27 13 27 13 27 13 27 13 27 13 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 0 4 0 1 0 1 31 17 32 18 33 19 34 20 35 20 35 20 17 10 17 10 18 11 19 12 20 12 20 12 10 5 10 5 10 5 11 6 12 6 12 6 28 14 28 14 28 14 28 14 28 14 29 15 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 36 21 37 22 38 22 38 22 38 22 39 22 20 12 21 13 22 13 22 13 22 13 22 13 12 6 12 6 13 6 13 6 13 6 13 6 29 15 29 15 29 15 30 15 31 16 31 16 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 15 7 15 7 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 39 22 39 22 40 22 40 22 40 22 41 23 22 13 22 13 22 13 22 13 22 13 22 13 13 6 13 6 13 6 13 6 13 6 13 6 32 16 33 17 33 17 34 17 35 18 35 18 15 7 16 8 16 8 16 8 17 9 17 9 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 42 23 42 23 43 24 44 24 44 24 44 24 23 13 23 13 23 13 24 13 24 13 24 13 13 6 13 6 13 6 13 6 13 6 13 6 35 18 36 19 36 19 36 19 37 19 38 19 17 9 17 9 17 9 17 9 17 9 18 9 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 8 3 1 0 3 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 44 24 45 25 46 26 47 26 47 26 47 26 24 13 24 13 25 14 26 14 26 14 26 14 13 6 13 6 13 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 39 20 39 20 39 20 39 20 40 20 41 21 19 10 19 10 19 10 19 10 19 10 20 11 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 48 26 48 26 48 26 49 27 50 27 50 27 26 14 26 14 26 14 26 14 27 14 27 14 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 41 21 42 21 43 22 43 22 43 22 44 23 20 11 20 11 21 12 21 12 21 12 21 12 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 51 27 51 27 52 27 52 27 52 27 27 14 27 14 27 14 27 14 27 14 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 14 6 44 23 45 24 45 24 46 24 47 24 21 12 21 12 21 12 21 12 22 12 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 Project 5 Hot Hand 1. Enter the data on a spreadsheet. Put your name in cell A1 and enter the 1's and 0's across the row from B1 to CW1. (You should have done this already.) 2. Find your shooting percentage. (Just sum the data and divide by 100). 3. Find the correlation coefficient. a. Paste the data to the second row from A2 to CV2. (Just the data, not your name.) b. (Type =CORREL(B1:CV1, B2:CV2) in an empty cell. 4. Find the conditional probabilities for a make following 3 misses, 2 misses, 1 miss, 1 make, 2 makes, 3 makes. You can use the program I provided. Just paste you data over mine in the top row. 5. Enter the statistics in the space provided. Note that this is the same data that is in the table on the Philadelphia 76ers in the hot hand article. 6. Interpret your results in the space provided. 7. Next, count the number of runs in your series. For example the series 11001110 has 4 runs. . 8. Go to http://www.quantitativeskills.com/sisa/statistics/ordinal.htm a. Enter the data and do the WW runs test. b. Find the expected number of runs and the z-statistic. The z-statistic is the number of standard deviations that your outcome lies from the mean of the distribution of runs. 9. Show where your runs number falls on the normal distribution provided. 10. Enter the statistics in the space provided. 11. Interpret your results in the space provided. Name _____________ Assignment Sheet Assignment #5 Hot Hand 1. Fill in the following prob(hit/3 misses) prob(hit/2 misses) p(hit/1 miss) p(hit) p(hit/1hit) p(hit/2 hits) p(hit/3 hits) 2. Do your conditional probabilities show evidence of the hot hand? Explain. 3. Does your correlation coefficient show evidence of the hot hand? Explain. 4. Fill in the following. hits misses runs expected runs 5. Show where your runs number falls on the distribution. 6. Is this evidence of the hot hand? Explain. z-statistic 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0