Data from the Western Regional Climate Center for the monthly mean daily solar radiation (in Langleys1) at Zion Canyon, Utah, is shown in the Excel spreadsheet tab entitled SolarRadiation. This data appears to have a strong seasonal component. a. Use the data from 2003-2022 to develop a multiplicative Winters exponential smoothing model. Use this model to simulate one-month-ahead forecasts for the remaining months of the data available. b. Calculate the forecasting errors and discuss the reasonableness of the forecasts. c. Develop an additive Winters exponential smoothing model with the data. d. Compare the performance of the additive and multiplicative models for this data. Mean Daily Solar Radiation in Zion Canyon, Utah Year Month Radiation 2003 Nov 184 2003 Dec 178 2004 Jan 212 2004 Feb 229 2004 Mar 453 2004 Apr 503 2004 May 619 2004 Jun 615 2004 Jul 573 2004 Aug 535 2004 Sept 464 2004 Oct 262 2004 Nov 208 2004 Dec 175 2005 Jan 166 2005 Feb 216 2005 Mar 385 2005 Apr 508 2005 May 529 2005 Jun 549 2005 Jul 579 2005 Aug 474 2005 Sept 443 2005 Oct 302 2005 Nov 224 2005 Dec 170 2006 Jan 184 2006 Feb 272 2006 Mar 310 2006 Apr 477 2006 May 572 2006 Jun 583 2006 Jul 508 2006 Aug 509 2006 Sept 431 2006 Oct 291 2006 Nov 211 2006 Dec 177 2007 Jan 220 2007 Feb 263 2007 Mar 396 2007 Apr 466 2007 May 590 2007 Jun 634 2007 Jul 542 2007 Aug 511 2007 Sept 432 2007 Oct 316 2007 Nov 233 2007 Dec 179 2008 Jan 176 2008 Feb 270 2008 Mar 415 2008 Apr 569 2008 May 542 2008 Jun 647 2008 Jul 569 2008 Aug 499 2008 Sept 459 2008 Oct 333 2008 Nov 208 2008 Dec 157 2009 Jan 214 2009 Feb 240 2009 Mar 423 2009 Apr 487 2009 May 593 2009 Jun 586 2009 Jul 638 2009 Aug 617 2009 Sept 523 2009 Oct 367 2009 Nov 283 2009 Dec 196 2010 Jan 213 2010 Feb 282 2010 Mar 440 2010 Apr 546 2010 May 672 2010 Jun 703 2010 Jul 665 2010 Aug 595 2010 Sept 570 2010 Oct 322 2010 Nov 244 2010 Dec 153 2011 Jan 242 2011 Feb 294 2011 Mar 389 2011 Apr 533 2011 May 584 2011 Jun 703 2011 Jul 597 2011 Aug 625 2011 Sept 488 2011 Oct 371 2011 Nov 248 2011 Dec 214 2012 Jan 246 2012 Feb 321 2012 Mar 425 2012 Apr 560 2012 May 713 2012 Jun 733 2012 Jul 550 2012 Aug 517 2012 Sept 485 2012 Oct 367 2012 Nov 241 2012 Dec 158 2013 Jan 232 2013 Feb 333 2013 Mar 457 2013 Apr 506 2013 May 541 2013 Jun 645 2013 Jul 494 2013 Aug 463 2013 Sept 412 2013 Oct 320 2013 Nov 207 2013 Dec 180 2014 Jan 205 2014 Feb 265 2014 Mar 401 2014 Apr 479 2014 May 549 2014 Jun 642 2014 Jul 528 2014 Aug 480 2014 Sept 428 2014 Oct 338 2014 Nov 219 2014 Dec 147 2015 Jan 180 2015 Feb 284 2015 Mar 404 2015 Apr 530 2015 May 456 2015 Jun 589 2015 Jul 531 2015 Aug 482 2015 Sept 428 2015 Oct 287 2015 Nov 214 2015 Dec 165 2016 Jan 167 2016 Feb 307 2016 Mar 366 2016 Apr 484 2016 May 524 2016 Jun 616 2016 Jul 603 2016 Aug 500 2016 Sept 419 2016 Oct 321 2016 Nov 220 2016 Dec 159 2017 Jan 150 2017 Feb 214 2017 Mar 389 2017 Apr 514 2017 May 554 2017 Jun 643 2017 Jul 542 2017 Aug 522 2017 Sept 438 2017 Oct 369 2017 Nov 228 2017 Dec 186 2018 Jan 200 2018 Feb 276 2018 Mar 365 2018 Apr 532 2018 May 575 2018 Jun 647 2018 Jul 552 2018 Aug 500 2018 Sept 470 2018 Oct 308 2018 Nov 234 2018 Dec 163 2019 Jan 178 2019 Feb 227 2019 Mar 351 2019 Apr 480 2019 May 479 2019 Jun 600 2019 Jul 557 2019 Aug 532 2019 Sept 462 2019 Oct 381 2019 Nov 221 2019 Dec 145 2020 Jan 205 2020 Feb 318 2020 Mar 340 2020 Apr 503 2020 May 590 2020 Jun 605 2020 Jul 581 2020 Aug 549 2020 Sept 472 2020 Oct 357 2020 Nov 212 2020 Dec 185 2021 Jan 196 2021 Feb 302 2021 Mar 389 2021 Apr 535 2021 May 594 2021 Jun 564 2021 Jul 507 2021 Aug 520 2021 Sept 443 2021 Oct 299 2021 Nov 236 2021 Dec 146 2022 Jan 220 2022 Feb 311 2022 Mar 388 2022 Apr 533 2022 May 646 2022 June 622 2022 July 555 2022 August 475 2022 September 437