Question
date sales 2000Q1 6307 2000Q2 6053 2000Q3 6118 2000Q4 7433 2001Q1 5993 2001Q2 5960 2001Q3 5786 2001Q4 7016 2002Q1 5856 2002Q2 5795 2002Q3 6662 2002Q4
date | sales |
2000Q1 | 6307 |
2000Q2 | 6053 |
2000Q3 | 6118 |
2000Q4 | 7433 |
2001Q1 | 5993 |
2001Q2 | 5960 |
2001Q3 | 5786 |
2001Q4 | 7016 |
2002Q1 | 5856 |
2002Q2 | 5795 |
2002Q3 | 6662 |
2002Q4 | 7170 |
2003Q1 | 6500 |
2003Q2 | 6377 |
2003Q3 | 7014 |
2003Q4 | 8549 |
2004Q1 | 7189 |
2004Q2 | 7471 |
2004Q3 | 7543 |
2004Q4 | 8666 |
2005Q1 | 7829 |
2005Q2 | 7715 |
2005Q3 | 7734 |
2005Q4 | 8854 |
2006Q1 | 7767 |
2006Q2 | 8474 |
2006Q3 | 8652 |
2006Q4 | 9581 |
2007Q1 | 7954 |
2007Q2 | 9045 |
2007Q3 | 8930 |
2007Q4 | 10452 |
2008Q1 | 8710 |
2008Q2 | 9236 |
2008Q3 | 9445 |
2008Q4 | 9599 |
2009Q1 | 8087 |
2009Q2 | 8596 |
2009Q3 | 9867 |
2009Q4 | 9739 |
2010Q1 | 8580 |
2010Q2 | 10002 |
2010Q3 | 9742 |
2010Q4 | 10716 |
2011Q1 | 9077 |
2011Q2 | 10675 |
2011Q3 | 10425 |
2011Q4 | 10779 |
2012Q1 | 9629 |
2012Q2 | 11088 |
2012Q3 | 10782 |
2012Q4 | 11341 |
2013Q1 | 10554 |
2013Q2 | 11578 |
2013Q3 | 11568 |
2013Q4 | 12309 |
2014Q1 | 11649 |
2014Q2 | 12466 |
2014Q3 | 12389 |
2014Q4 | 13391 |
2015Q1 | 12461 |
2015Q2 | 13101 |
2015Q3 | 13512 |
2015Q4 | 15244 |
2016Q1 | 12969 |
2016Q2 | 14277 |
2016Q3 | 13142 |
2016Q4 | 14784 |
2017Q1 | 13336 |
2017Q2 | 14238 |
2017Q3 | 12779 |
2017Q4 | 15351 |
2018Q1 | 14548 |
2018Q2 | 15228 |
2018Q3 | 14307 |
2018Q4 | 15303 |
2019Q1 | 14924 |
2019Q2 | 20262 |
2019Q3 | 19100 |
2019Q4 | 20858 |
2020Q1 | 18044 |
2020Q2 | 11779 |
Please answer and justify, showing all steps and results using RStudio.
1. Use 2000:1 to 2013:4 for training and 2014:1 to 2020:2 for testing. The random walk with drift MASE from the test data is:
A) 1.35
B) 2.57
C) 1.43
D) 4.52
2. The revenue forecast for 2021 Q1 from the random walk with drift model is:
A) 11982
B) 9301
C) 13600
D) 12111
3. Plot the ACF for revenue, using RStudio. The ACF shows:
A) seasonal
B) cycle
C) trend
D) noise
4. Perform time series cross-validation on the data for the same set of quarterly sales. Use a random walk with drift for the forecast function. Find the MAD at step 6.
A) 945
B) 808
C) 1045
D) 1151
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