DB3: The "Health" of the U.S. EconomyEnds

This discussion board needs to be in paragraph format. Please make sure you include every task explained.

For this DB, you will discuss the health/state of the U.S. economy. You'll provide your opinion on the health of the economy based on specific economic indicators that you will look up on the FRED website. You will support your opinion by describing the data you found relative to average historic values. Finally, you will respond to TWO classmates and add more support to their posts by providing additional data or by pointing out contradicting data.

Upon successful completion of this DB, you will be able to cut through all the media noise and come to an informed opinion based on reliable data. You'll be more empowered to make sense of what's happening in the macro economy and make better choices for yourself.

WHAT TO POST

There are two parts to this discussion board. Be sure tofollow all the instructions to ensure you've done everything required to earn the points.

Click Start New Thread to post. To make an audio or video post, click Add Attachment, then click Record to do so directly in the browser. Please do not upload a video file as an attachment.

Refer to these instructions. They provide you with the indicators you'll be looking up as well as the the typical values from the years 2000 - 2020. They also provide examples of how to compose your opinion and describe your findings.

Your post should contain your opinion on the health of the economy as well as three or four indicators that support your opinion. The indicators you include must come from different categories (they are laid out for you in the instructions).

As you work through the examples in the instructions, you might notice that they veer towards "good" or "bad," but it's also fine to have an opinion that is uncertain if there is mixed evidence. In this case, include that mixed evidence.

If there's anything happening in current events that you think could change things, go ahead and mention it. (For example, pretend there's a new disease in the news and there's no treatment yet. You can something along the lines of "Though my opinion on the health of the economy is _______, this could change if fear of the new disease might make people stay at home, which would mean less spending in the economy.")

Finally, make sure you sign your post as you'd like to be addressed.

How To Look Up the Economic Indicators Visit https://fred.stlovisfed.org to look up the most recent value for the indicators in the table below. Record the most recent values in the last column, Visit this page to learn how to search FRED for the series you need. (Copy the series name from the table and paste it into the FRED search bar, then click on the desired result to make things easier for yourself.) MAKE SURE THE SERIES SELECTED MATCHES THE SERIES NAME IN THE TABLE BELOW. You'll know because it will be listed by the name. If there is a superscript number (a little number that's raised up higher) by the indicator name in the table below, this means you must make changes to the default FRED display/graph to get the corract value for the latest data point. For each superscript \"1\" you encounter, make the changes listed beside the number 1 below. Repeat as needed for superscripts 2 and 3. 1 - click Edit Graph to show units and select \"compounded annual rate of change\" 2 - click Edit Graph to show units and select \"percent change from year age\" 3 - click Edit Graph to show units and select \"percent change from year age\" and change freguency to "monthly Economic Indicator Series Name Median Intemuaau'lle_gsnge (1ar) Most Recent Value Real GDP growth {quarterly growth at on onnualized rate)* GDPC1 2.6% 12%-3.8% Real GDI growth {quarterly growth ot an annualized rate)* AZBIRNIC0Z0SBEA 2.5% 0.6% 4.5% Change in nonfarm payrolls (menthly change) PAYEMS 157,000 12,500 - 248,000 Unemployment rate {percent of the labor force) UMNRATE 5.4 4 7% -0.7% Initial unemployment claims (thousands) 1CSA 339 312-385 Business confidence (Business Tendency Surveys- Manufocturing) BSCICPO3USMEE5S 537 50.7 -57 Consumer confidence (University of Michigan index) UMCSENT B9.2 775-958 Inflation {onnual percent change in consumer price indexf* CPIAUCSL 2.4% 17%-3.0% Employment cost index (annual percent change J* ECIALLCIV 2.6% 20%-35% Annual growth in 5&P 500 (percent change over the year? SP500 117% 0.0% - 21% The median tells you what the \"typical\" outcome has been. Interguartile range tells you the spread of the middle 50% of the data series (larger spread means values can var mare). You can also think of the IQR as the range that data points are typically in half the time (again, in this case over the past 20 years). Because IQR is based on values that are more centered, you can get a sense of which numbers are generally normal. You can Jearn more about the median and IQR at the Khan Academy website. These median and IQR values are for the 20-year period 2000 2020. Lowest Value ai Median (= Q2) a3 a4 [ s T x0T wmw ] Interquartile Range (Q3 - Q1) Page 2of4 How To Write Your Opinion Now that you have all the most recent values for the economic indicators, it's time to describe your findings and share your opinion on the current state of the U.5. economy. Select ONE of the two organizational options below. OPTION 1: Start with your opinion then go on to describe data supporting it. * Start with your opinion. Pick one of these phrases, or mix and match, or create something similar of your own. o o0 oo The health of the economy now is (struggling, sluggish, good, great). Overall, the U.5. economy seems to be (strong, doing well, doing poorly, weak). Considering the latest economic data, the economy appears (healthy, to be performing well, to be slowing, in a slump). Taking all the data values into consideration, my assessment of the economy is (that it's not as bad as the news has made it out to be, that it's worse than the news claims, that it's okay, that it isn"t terrible, on the downturn, on the upswing.) Now pick three or four indicators (from different categories) with the most recent values (the observations) supporting your opinion. Describe how each observation compares to the median and range of typical values and tell what it means/how it impacts the economy. Here are example descriptions of the real GDP data series: o Real GDP growth is up. The most recent data point is 4.9%, which is higher than both the median (2.6%) and the third quartile 3.8%). This indicates there is increased spending in the economy, so the economy has grown larger. A growing economy also means there are more jobs, so unemployment may decrease. The October 2023 observation of real GDP growth (updated in December 2023} is 4.9%. This is larger than the median value of 2.6%. In fact, it's almost double. Typical values of real GDP growth tend to be between 1.2% and 3.8%, so 4.9% is even higher than the third quartile. Since real GDP is a measure of the size of the economy, it's safe to say the economy has grown quite a bit. The FRED data show it's actually been growing since the first quarter of 2022. = Note how both examples tell what the latest value of real GDP growth is (4.9%). Both examples compare 4.9% to the median (2.6%) and the high end of the usual range of values (3.8%). Both examples tell us that real GDP measures the size of the economy, which means the economy has grown larger. = Asyou choose your next indicator to describe, be sure to pick one from a different category. In other words, don't pick GDI because it falls under the same \"economic growth\" category. Pick an indicator from the jobs category, the prices category, the business or consumer confidence category, etc. * If you select the Stock market category, you might find that it doesn't follow what you might expect. To predict how financial markets respond to economic new economic data, focus on the difference between outcomes and expectations. Why? The stock market is forward-looking. Current stock prices already incorporate expectations about the future. So, what matters to investors is whether the latest numbers show the economy is strong or weak relative to their expectations. For example, if stock prices already reflect the expectation that the economy is growing very strongly, and the latest numbers show that it's growing less strongly (still strong, but not as much as expected), investors will be disappointed. They'll adjust their expectations downwards, leading the stock market to fall even though there was still growth