Question
Decision Making under uncertainty Hello, I would like to know the steps by steps on how to solve this on excel decision tree, please do
Decision Making under uncertainty
Hello, I would like to know the steps by steps on how to solve this on excel decision tree, please do not just answer the final result. Thank you
Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases
in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisles alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisles marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P06_31.xlsx contains Carlisles payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes.
a. Use Precision Tree to identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturers expected profit.
b. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary
one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value and summarize your findings. Which of the
inputs appear to have the largest effect on the best solution
Tire plant decisions | |||
Decision\outcome | Expand | Remain stable | Contract |
Construct a new plant | $400,000 | -$100,000 | -$200,000 |
Expand existing plant | $250,000 | -$50,000 | -$75,000 |
Do nothing | $50,000 | $0 | -$30,000 |
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