Decision Science

1. Pineapple sales at Whil's Pineapple Farm in St. Mary are shoWn in the left column in the table below: MOVING AVERAGE CALCULATIONS - PINEAPPLE SALES BY MONTH scrum. FORECAST usrr-ro 2- Absolute arm FOR 3- 4 -wEEK movme PINEAPPLE SALES WEEK MOVING WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FORECAST {1000's} AVERAGE AVERAGE FORECAST January February March April {13+12+10}l3 = 11.67 (16 11.67) = 4.33 May t16+13+12)!3=13.6? {19 13.67) = 533 June (19+16+13}r3=1s.00 {23-16} = '2' July {23+19+1s}r3 =19.33 {26- 19.33) = 5.57 August [26+23+19}.-'3=22.6? (3|) 22.67) = 7.33 September {30+26+23}l3 = 26.33 (28 - 26.33) = 1.67 October (23+30+26]!3= 28.00 (1 s 23} = 10 November {18+23+30}!3 = 25.33 (16 25.33) = 9.33 December ' {16+13+23}I3 = 20.5? (bl20.67) = as? ' SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERROR = 58.33. Therefore MAD Is 33:9 = 5.48 IANUARY - a. Compute 4 and 5 month moving averages for the time b. C. series. Compute the MAD for the 4 and 5 month moving averages forecasts. Based on the MAD error analysis, which is the preferred forecasting method? Remember that the MAD for the 3- month moving average is 6.48. Use the preferred method to forecast sale of pineapples in January of the following year. Use a weight of 6 for the most recent observation, 3 for the second most recent, and 2 for the third most recent to compute a 3-month Weighted moving aVerage for the time serles. Compute the MAD for the weighted moving average in part (c). Do you prefer this weighted moving average to the 3 month simple moving average? Remember that the MAD for the 3month simple moving average is 6.48 Use Excel to do the calculations