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Decision Tree Analysis #2 Based on the decision tree given below, deduce which choice is better and its expected monetary value. 60% Success 30,000 USD
Decision Tree Analysis #2 Based on the decision tree given below, deduce which choice is better and its expected monetary value. 60% Success 30,000 USD Choice A 10,000 USD 40% Failure 50,000 USD Decision 80% Success 40,000 USD Choice B 5,000 USD 20% Failure 35,000 USD Solution To solve this question, you will calculate the EMV of both choices, find which choice is more economically beneficial to the project, and then make a decision based on these findings. EMV of choice A = 10,000 + 0.6*30,000 - 0.4*50,000 = 10,000 + 18,000 - 20,000 = 8,000 USD EMV of choice B = 5,000 + 0.8*40,000 - 0.2*35,000 = 5,000 + 3,200 - 7,000 = 1,200 USDBoth choices are representing opportunities, therefore you will go with the choice which gives you the highest opportunity. In the given question, choice A is giving you an opportunity of 8,000 USD which is the highest, so you will go with choice A. #:IHF Pragtigg gmgtign: Based on the decision tree given below, deduce which choice is better and its expected monetary value. 40,000 USD 20.!130 USD
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