Design problems

4. High winds occur at a site with a return period of 50 years. The design life of the structure of interest is 75 years. Damage between wind events is statistically independent. The structure is designed to have a probability of 0.98 of functioning for it's design life with no failure.

a) What is the probability of damage in a single wind event, modelled as a Bernoulli sequence? Answer: ____________________

b) Assume that the answer to part a is 0.20 (it isn't) and that the occurrence of wind events is a Poisson process. What would be the probability of damage to the structure in the next 25 years? Answer: ____