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Different techniques for analyzing project risk require different input variables and assumptions. The procedure in which one of the elements (or variables) affecting a project's

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Different techniques for analyzing project risk require different input variables and assumptions. The procedure in which one of the elements (or variables) affecting a project's expected value is changed to study its effect on the expected value is called analysis. Elle is a risk analyst. She is conducting a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the riskiness ofa new project that her company is considering investing in. Her risk analysis report includes the sensitivity curve shown on the graph. NPV IMillians of dallars NPV Basc Case Units Sold 20 15-10 -5 5 10 15 20 CHANGE IN UNITS SOLD (Percen This curveimplies that the project is very sensitive to changes in units sold. The project's NPV is likely to become negative if the number of units sold decreases by Along with the sensitivity analysis, Elle is including a scenario analysis for the project in her report, giving the probability of the project generating a negative NPv. Her reportincludes the following information about the scenario analysis Data Collected Probability Data for z Probability (Pi) 0.50 0.35 0.15 0.09 0.3336 0.3228 .3121 0.6 0.2643 0.2546 0.2451 0.8 0.2033 0.1919 0.1867 1.0 0.15150.1446 0.1379 0.03 0.06 NPVj Outcome Pessimistic$2.31 million Most likely $4.53 million Optimistic $12.11 million 0.4 Complete the missing information in Ele's report: The expected net present value of the project is Standard deviation of the net present value (the NPV of the project is likely to vary by) Assuming that probability distribution is normal, the value of z is million. Thus, the project has a chance to generate an NPV of less than $0

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