Direction: Read the case carefully and answer the questions given. (15 marks)

In 2018, Afghanistan had one of the higher rates of natural increase (birth rate minus death rate; or net increase) in the world at 2.7% - much higher than any other central Asian nation. Data provided from the Population Reference Bureau had the Afghan birth rate at (35/1000) and the death rate at (8/1000). What is most significant here is that the death rate in Afghanistan is low and it continues to decline. Only a decade ago the death rate was over 20/1000, peaking around 2009. This fast reduction in the death rate is interesting to demographers because although life expectancy has risen quickly, one of the primary indicators of a lowered death rate (child mortality) remains high. Afghanistan currently has the highest rate of child mortality in the world, where one in ten children do not live passed the age of 5.

Like Afghanistan, many countries in Stage 2 are categorized as "developing." Afghanistan has experienced decades of war both internally, and externally, and this has had significant impacts on the overall health and health care system of the country. With continued improvement to both, the expected outcome determined by the DTM is a transition into Stage 3 where total population growth continues, but at a lower rate. The DTM does not provide a time table for transition, but the large gap between the birth and death may signal that the country is nearing the end of Stage 2. For that transition to occur, Afghanistan will need to address outstanding social and economic factors that lead to lower birth rates, most notably in the areas of education and the status of women. Afghanistan has a very high illiteracy rate and limited educational opportunities for women, both indicators towards a high birth rate. Without either of those issues being addressed, the country will remain in Stage 2, with a high rate of population growth. If the current growth rate continues the total population of Afghanistan is expected to double in just 20 years.

1. Identify the demographic transition stage of Afghanistan and list down its characteristics. (5 marks) (Marking scheme: 2 marks for transition stage and 3 marks for characteristics).

2. Assess the probable reasons for decrease in death rate even though child mortality rate remains high? (5marks)

3. Analyze the situations which prevent Afghanistan to transit into stage 3 of Demographic Transition Model. (5 marks)