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Do you think the implied probability of real adverse events in question (5) is a good reflection of reality? As a benchmark for comparison, consider

Do you think the implied probability of real adverse events in question (5) is a good reflection of reality? As a benchmark for comparison, consider the Pakistani project value under the following extreme assumptions: (i) the probability of expropriation over a 5- year period is 70%, and (ii) if expropriated, the government will compensate AES for about 40% of the project's remaining value

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