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draw the AON diagram; find the critical path and the expected project completion time. Then compute the probability of completing the project in (i) 21

draw the AON diagram; find the critical path and the expected project completion time. Then compute the probability of completing the project in (i) 21 days; (ii) 22 days; and (iii) 25 days.

Expected time (optimistic + 4x monthly + Pessimistic) / 6

Task

a

m

b

Expected

Variance

Std Dev.

A

6.5

7.5

14.5

8.5

1.77

1.33

B

8.5

10.5

12.5

10.5

.45

.67

C

2.5

3.5

4.5

3.5

.11

.33

D

6.5

7.5

8.5

7.5

.11

.33

E

5.5

5.5

9.5

6.2

.45

.67

F

5.5

7.5

9.5

7.5

.45

.67

G

4.5

6.5

8.5

6.5

.45

.67

H

2.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

.03

.17

Activity

Predecessors

Start

None

A

Start

B

Start

C

A

D

A

E

B, C

F

B, C

G

D, E

H

F

End

G, H

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