ECO-301: Milestone Three Directions

Submit the results of your regression analysis for the demand function you are estimating for your term project. unemployment and crime rate Include:

The data used to estimate the demand model

pulling statistical data from the Federal Bureau of Investigations Uniform Crime report for the year of 2019-2020. I will also be pulling data from the United States Department of Labors for the year of 2019-2020.

Violent Crime

• When data from the first six months of 2020 were compared with data from the first six months of 2019, the number of rape offenses decreased 17.8%, and robbery offenses were down 7.1%. The number of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses increased 14.8%, and aggravated assault offenses were up 4.6%.
• The overall number of violent crimes decreased in four city population groups. Law enforcement agencies in cities with populations of less than 10,000 reported the largest decrease, 7.2%. Law enforcement agencies in cities with populations of 100,000 to 249,000 reported the smallest decrease, 0.3%.
• Violent crime decreased in three of the four regions of the nation. These crimes were down 4.8% in the Northeast, 1.8% in the Midwest, and 1.1% in the West. However, violent crime increased in the South, 2.5%.

Property Crime

• In the property crime category, offenses declined 7.8%. Larceny thefts were down 9.9%, and burglaries decreased 7.8%. Motor vehicle thefts increased 6.2%.
• The overall number of property crimes decreased in all city population groups. Law enforcement agencies in cities with populations under 10,000 inhabitants reported the largest decrease, 14.2%. Law enforcement agencies in cities with populations of 250,000 to 499,999 reported the smallest decrease, 3.7%.
• Property crime decreased 9.3% in nonmetropolitan counties and 7.3% in metropolitan counties.
• Property crime decreased in all four regions of the nation. Reports of these offenses reflected declines of 10.3% in the Midwest, 9.3% in the South, 5.7% in the Northeast, and 5.3% in the West.

The results of the analysis, an analysis of the results (need help)

Description of remaining issue that needs to be addressed before the final paper is submitted.

Using your inventory of data collected, you will estimate and perform various analyses which will lead you to an evaluation. At the conclusion of your analysis you will address how this example can inform other real-world decision making in other organizations as well as your own decision-making and management skills.

Statistical Analysis and Tests

The variables that will be used are population total, unemployment rate, and crime rate and property crimes for 2019-2020

Assumptions of data may be impacted by outside sources that can have an impact on the variables of crime and unemployment. These variables can include race, crimes that have not been reported, education level and the under-employment numbers. All of which can play a part in the weakness of data.

2. Each variable (independent variables have to be tested by using t-test, so as to see whether each of the variables (exogenous or independent) that you have include in the function has an effect on the dependent variable (left hand side).

3. For t-test, the following steps should be followed:

(i) H0: 0 = 0

(Null hypothesis)

HA: 00

(Alternate hypothesis)

If t calculated > t table value (n-k) degrees of freedom

where:

n = # of observations

k = # of parameters, i.e. # of right hand side variables plus the constant

then H0 is rejected, i.e. the variable you are testing has an effect on the dependent variable.

4. Do F-test, by following these steps:

(i) H0: 0 = 1 = 2 = 0

(Null hypothesis)

HA: At least one is not equal to zero

(Alternate hypothesis)

(ii) If F calculated > F table value

Then H0 is rejected, i.e. all the right-hand-side variables are important.

I believe using the null hypothesis method with a confidence interval of 95% this will allow for the null hypothesis to either reject or not reject. After performing the regression analysis, the 95% confidence interval will all the outside impact factors or the untested variables to be considered. This will allow the hypothesis to incorrect 5% of the time.