EFB106 COST AND BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR PROJECT APPRAISAL Assessment Item 1: Sensitivity Analysis Online resource: http://www.cbabuilder.co.uk/ CBA Builder Excel Tool: http://www.cbabuilder.co.uk/CBABuilder.html Please choose CBA Simple version Case description: The below case is drawn on the Wheatley D (2010) CBA Builder Advanced Worksheet 1: New Trunk Road. The UC has made several changes to the values of several parameters and questions. Copy right of this case study however belongs to Wheatley D. (2010). Each student will be provided a set of values for X1 - X25, highlighted in yellow in this document. The student is required to do this assessment using the given set of X1 - X25 values. You are required to perform a project appraisal of a proposed new trunk road. The road will be a dual lane bypass around a town centre in Cheshire. The project is estimated to improve journey time through the county and reduce congestion problems in the town. There are some concerns which have been raised by local inhabitants including the increased noise and pollution caused by the new road, and the loss of an area of parkland which the road will cut through. The county council and UK Government's Department for Transport (DfT) require an appraisal of the project accounting for timesavings, loss of natural environment and other factors. You have been recommended to use a social discount rate of X1. 1 The site of the new trunk road will need to be purchased at a cost of $1.3m (using a compulsory purchase order), and the project will need to be planned at a cost of around X2. Both the purchase of the land and the planning agreement must be in place before construction can begin. Initial costs estimated by the contractor, which occur in Year 0, include site clearance estimated at around X3, and initial ground works at X4. Construction costs occur in Year 1, Year 2, and Year 3 and include building materials at X5, and plant rental at X6. These costs have been fixed with the contractor and so remain the same for each year. Wage cost are for X7 construction workers at X8 per hour, and a site manager at X9 per hour. Estimated staffing times are X10 hours per week all year (47 weeks) for the site manager, and X11 hours per week all year for the construction workers (47 weeks). The staffing times remain the same in Year 1, Year 2 and Year 3 and wages grow at the rate equivalent to X12. The development of the road causes loss to different parts of the natural parkland. The local economists have agreed that the loss per year for each zones are in the below table. Zone A B C Average loss (per year) X13 X14 X15 There is a significant maintenance cost associated with the new trunk road estimated at X16 per annum. This cost will begin in Year 4 following the completion of the road. The growth rate for this cost is estimated at X17. It is estimated that the average house value will decrease from its current level of $250,000 to around X18 as a result of the project. This will affect X19 houses close to the road. 2 The benefits of the new trunk road including reduced congestion and subsequent timesavings, as well as some estimated accident reduction. The benefits due to time savings are estimated to be around X20 (worktime savings by cars), X21 (commuting by cars) and X22 (work by large vehicles). These savings will begin in the beginning of Year 4 and continue until the end of the CBA appraisal period (Year 20) with an annual growth rate of 3% from Year 4 to Year 10 and 0.5% from Year 11 to Year 20. Estimated benefits in relation to accident reduction are due to estimated reduction in the current rate of fatalities on the road, and reduction in serious and slight accidents as well as damage made to vehicles. The reductions should be included from Year 4 to Year 20. Estimated values of these benefits are around X23 per year with the lower bound of X23a and upper bound of X23b. In addition to this, it is expected that the new trunk road will reduce the ongoing cost of maintenance on the existing road, producing annual savings of $50,000. This saving will begin in the beginning of Year 4 and continue until the end of the CBA appraisal period (Year 20) with an annual growth rate of 3%. Questions 1. Using the data on costs and benefits provided, submit an excel spreadsheet using CBA Builder Simple (maximum 5 marks - AOL KS1.2). 2. Using the information given in a worksheet \"Sensitivity Analysis\" to answer following questions a. Discuss the meaning of the calculated value a breakeven discount rate (maximum 2 marks - AOL KS1.1) b. Discuss the purpose of conducting this sensitivity analysis (maximum 3 marks - AOL KS1.1). 3 3. Construct a table listing the major present values of cost and benefits (maximum 2 marks- AOL KS1.2). Use this table and answer two following questions: a. What are cost item (one item) and benefit item (one item) do you think will have the most impact on the net present value of the project? Justify your answers. (maximum 4 marks - AOL KS1.1) b. Take the view of a more pessimistic person, what variable(s) in the cost and benefit sides would you like to vary its value (i.e. to change or to modify with various values) in order to assess the sensitivity of the NPV? Provide arguments for your answer. (maximum 4 marks - AOL KS1.1) 4. Remove those items that do not have market prices in the cost and benefit sides, then construct a CBA Builder. Using the newly constructed CBA Builder, answer the following questions a. Fill in answers to the below table (maximum 3 marks AOL KS1.2) Criteria CBA Builder with all costs and benefits included (done in Question 1) CBA Builder without nonmarket costs and benefits (done in Question 4) Net Present Value Break-even IRR IRR b. Comment on the implication and significance of including all non-market costs and benefits on the NPV, 4 break-event IRR and IRR (maximum 2 marks - AOL KS1.1) Online submission requirement 1. For Question 1 & 4: submit TWO DIFFERENT Excel spreadsheets. Please name your files as Nxxx_CBA_Q1.xlsx and Nxxx_CBA_Q4.xlsx where xxx is your student number. 2. For Questions 2 & 3: please provide a short Word document or pdf, highlighting your answers. 5 Student ID X1 0.0440 X2 57,200 X3 220,000 X4 1,210,000 X5 2,035,000 X6 660,000 X7 220 X8 19.00 X9 34.00 X10 34.000 X11 27.00 X12 0.0120 X13 137,500 X14 165,000 X15 330,000 X16 101,200 X17 0.030 X18 209,000 X19 110 X20 165,000 X21 143,000 X22 2,200,000 X23 922,500 X23a 795,000 X23b 1,050,000 Question 2 (a.)The break even calculation identifies the number of sales to be made, (in dollars or units), before all the business expenses are covered and profit begins. (before tax).Given the unit's sale price and cost price and the business operating expenses you can calculate the number of units you need to sell before you start making a profit. Break-even analysis calculates what is known as a margin of safety, the amount that revenues exceed the break-even point. This is the amount that revenues can fall while still staying above the break-even point. Break-even analysis is a supply-side analysis; it only analyzes the costs of the sales. (b.) The uses are grouped into four main categories: decision making or development of recommendations for decision makers, communication, increased understanding or quantification of the system, and model development. Sensitivity analysis can be used to indicate how important it is to make the changes to management suggested by the changing optimal solution. Perhaps the base-case solution is only slightly sub-optimal in the plausible range of circumstances, so that it is reasonable to adopt it anyway. Even if the levels of variables in the optimal solution are changed dramatically by a higher or lower parameter value, one should examine the difference in profit (or another relevant objective) between these solutions and the base-case solution. If the objective is hardly affected by these changes in management, a decision maker may be willing to bear the small cost of not altering the strategy for the sake of simplicity. Question 2 Construct a table listing the major present values of cost and benefits(maximum 2 marks- AOL KS1.2).Use this table and answer two following questions: (a.) What are cost item (one item) and benefit item (one item) do you think will have the most impact on the net present value of the project? Justify your answers.(maximum 4 marks- AOL KS1.1) The total net present value of the decision is stated in the bottom right cell of the table. Year Cash Flow Discount Factor* Present Value 0 -$120,000 1.000 -$120,000 1 +35,000 .9259 +32,407 2 +35,000 .8573 +30,006 3 +35,000 .7938 +27,783 4 +25,000 .7350 +18,375 5 +25,000 .6806 +17,015 Net Present Value = +$5,586 Justification - The reason why the discount rate has a greater impact on cash flows further away in time is that these cash flows are worth less, since you have to wait longer to receive them (b.) Take the view of a more pessimistic person, what variable(s) in the cost and benefit sides would you like to varyits value (i.e. to change or to modify with various values) in order to assess the sensitivity of the NPV? Provide arguments for your answer i). Working capital. If there will be an incremental change in the amount invested in accounts receivable or inventory as the result of a purchase decision, include these cash flows in the analysis. If the asset is to be eventually sold off, this may mean that the related working capital investment will be terminated at the same time. ii).Tax payments. Include any property taxes related to assets that are acquired. Also, include the amount of any incremental income taxes paid, if the acquired asset generates profits. iii) Depreciation effect. Include the effect on income taxes paid of the depreciation expense associated with an acquired asset. This effect is caused by the tax deductibility of depreciation. Enter One-off Costs Name of Cost site purchesed plinnning demolition Ground works Materials Plant rental demolition workers domoitione manage Bulding materials Monetary Value 239,950.00 32,000.00 50,000.00 38,000.00 102,000.00 150,000.00 300,800.00 827,200.00 Year Discount Rate 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Enter Costs Occurring on Multiple Years Name of Cost Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) 0 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) NPV Annual Costs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Net Present Value of Costs COSTS PV of Cost 239,950.00 32,000.00 50,000.00 38,000.00 102,000.00 150,000.00 300,800.00 827,200.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 3 4 5 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.740m BENEFITS 7 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 Year Number 9 10 11 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13 14 15 16 17 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Enter One-off Benefits Name of Benefit Monetary Value 12.000m Year Discount Rate Enter Benefits Occurring on Multiple Years Name of Benefit Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) 0 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) NPV Annual Benefits 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Net Present Value of Benefits BENEFITS PV of Benefit 12.000m 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 3 4 5 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.000m ENEFITS 7 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 Year Number 9 10 11 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13 14 15 16 17 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Estimating a Horizon Value Beginning of Horizon Period (Year) Social Discount Rate 20 3 Method Simple Projection Future Value for Net Benefits () Growth/Decline Rate (%) Horizon Value 0 0.00 Scrap Value Scrap value () Horizon Value 0.00 Initial Value of Asset () Depreciation Rate (%) Depreciation Period (Years) 0.00 0 0 Horizon Value 0.00 Initial Construction Cost () Reduction Factor (%) 0.00 0 0 Horizon Value 0.00 Depreciated Value Initial Construction Cost 0.00 Results Net Present Value (NPV) NPV = PV (B) - PV (C) NPV = 10.260m Net Present Value (NPV) with Horizon Valu NPV = PV (B) - PV (C) + PV (H) NPV = 10.260m Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) BCR = PV (B) / PV (C) BCR = 6.90 orizon Value Discount Rate Sensitivity Analysis Social Discount Rate: Discounted Horizon Value (): 0 Discount Rate (-) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Discount Rate (+) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple year Benefits -10.0 -9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 0 0.00 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 NPV 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m One-off 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 1E+007 0 NPV + H 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 9.959m 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 One-off C ### 10 ### 9 ### 8 ### 7 ### 6 ### 5 ### 4 ### 3 ### 2 ### 1 ### 0 ### 1 ### 2 ### 3 ### 4 ### 5 ### 6 ### 7 ### 8 ### 9 ### 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple year costs - 0.1 0.099 0.098 0.097 0.096 0.095 0.094 0.093 0.092 0.091 0.09 0.089 0.088 0.087 0.086 0.085 0.084 0.083 0.082 0.081 0.08 0.079 0.078 0.077 0.076 0.075 0.074 0.073 0.072 0.071 0.07 one-off benefits 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Multiyear ben 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.069 0.068 0.067 0.066 0.065 0.064 0.063 0.062 0.061 0.06 0.059 0.058 0.057 0.056 0.055 0.054 0.053 0.052 0.051 0.05 0.049 0.048 0.047 0.046 0.045 0.044 0.043 0.042 0.041 0.04 0.039 0.038 0.037 0.036 0.035 0.034 0.033 0.032 0.031 0.03 0.029 0.028 0.027 0.026 0.025 0.024 0.023 0.022 0.021 0.02 0.019 0.018 0.017 0.016 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.01 0.009 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 12000000 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9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.064 0.065 0.066 0.067 0.068 0.069 0.07 0.071 0.072 0.073 0.074 0.075 0.076 0.077 0.078 0.079 0.08 0.081 0.082 0.083 0.084 0.085 0.086 0.087 0.088 0.089 0.09 0.091 0.092 0.093 0.094 0.095 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.099 0.1 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 9959250 15 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 14 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.1 13 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.1 12 15 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 14 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.1 13 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.1 12 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### 15 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 14 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.1 13 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.1 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -4.9 -4.8 -4.7 -4.6 -4.5 -4.4 -4.3 -4.2 -4.1 -4 -3.9 -3.8 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 -3.2 -3.1 -3 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 -2.6 -2.5 -2.4 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 -2 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6 5.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6 5.9 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 -1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.93 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10 10.1 10.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.07 -0.8 -0.9 -1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -3 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3 -3.4 -3.5 -3.6 -3.7 -3.8 -3.9 -4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.3 -4.4 -4.5 -4.6 -4.7 -4.8 -4.9 -5 -5.1 -5.2 -5.3 -5.4 -5.5 -5.6 -5.7 -5.8 -5.9 -6 -6.1 -6.2 -6.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.07 -0.8 -0.9 -1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -3 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3 -3.4 -3.5 -3.6 -3.7 -3.8 -3.9 -4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.3 -4.4 -4.5 -4.6 -4.7 -4.8 -4.9 -5 -5.1 -5.2 -5.3 -5.4 -5.5 -5.6 -5.7 -5.8 -5.9 -6 -6.1 -6.2 -6.3 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.07 -0.8 -0.9 -1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -3 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3 -3.4 -3.5 -3.6 -3.7 -3.8 -3.9 -4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.3 -4.4 -4.5 -4.6 -4.7 -4.8 -4.9 -5 -5.1 -5.2 -5.3 -5.4 -5.5 -5.6 -5.7 -5.8 -5.9 -6 -6.1 -6.2 -6.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16 16.1 16.2 16.3 -6.4 -6.5 -6.6 -6.7 -6.8 -6.9 -7 -7.1 -7.2 -7.3 -7.4 -7.5 -7.6 -7.7 -7.8 -7.9 -8 -8.1 -8.2 -8.3 -8.4 -8.5 -8.6 -8.7 -8.8 -8.9 -9 -9.1 -9.2 -9.3 -9.4 -9.5 -9.6 -9.7 -9.8 -9.9 -10 -6.4 -6.5 -6.6 -6.7 -6.8 -6.9 -7 -7.1 -7.2 -7.3 -7.4 -7.5 -7.6 -7.7 -7.8 -7.9 -8 -8.1 -8.2 -8.3 -8.4 -8.5 -8.6 -8.7 -8.8 -8.9 -9 -9.1 -9.2 -9.3 -9.4 -9.5 -9.6 -9.7 -9.8 -9.9 -10 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### -6.4 -6.5 -6.6 -6.7 -6.8 -6.9 -7 -7.1 -7.2 -7.3 -7.4 -7.5 -7.6 -7.7 -7.8 -7.9 -8 -8.1 -8.2 -8.3 -8.4 -8.5 -8.6 -8.7 -8.8 -8.9 -9 -9.1 -9.2 -9.3 -9.4 -9.5 -9.6 -9.7 -9.8 -9.9 -10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 19 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 20 NPV Discount Rate Sensitivity Analysis 12.000m 10.000m 8.000m 6.000m 4.000m 2.000m 0.00 -10.0 -9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 y Analysis 4.0 Zero Horizon Value NPV including Horizon Value 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 Discount Rate (%) 9.0 10.0 Copyright Information All materials contained in CBA Builder Simple are protected by copyright laws, and may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcast or otherwise exploited in any manner without appropriate referencing and permission from Dr Dan Wheatley, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University. Contact Details: Dr Dan Wheatley Nottingham Business Schhol Nottingham Trent University Burton Street Nottingham NG1 4BU Email: daniel.wheatley2@ntu.ac.uk EFB106 COST AND BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR PROJECT APPRAISAL Assessment Item 1: Sensitivity Analysis Online resource: http://www.cbabuilder.co.uk/ CBA Builder Excel Tool: http://www.cbabuilder.co.uk/CBABuilder.html Please choose CBA Simple version Case description: The below case is drawn on the Wheatley D (2010) CBA Builder Advanced Worksheet 1: New Trunk Road. The UC has made several changes to the values of several parameters and questions. Copy right of this case study however belongs to Wheatley D. (2010). Each student will be provided a set of values for X1 - X25, highlighted in yellow in this document. The student is required to do this assessment using the given set of X1 - X25 values. You are required to perform a project appraisal of a proposed new trunk road. The road will be a dual lane bypass around a town centre in Cheshire. The project is estimated to improve journey time through the county and reduce congestion problems in the town. There are some concerns which have been raised by local inhabitants including the increased noise and pollution caused by the new road, and the loss of an area of parkland which the road will cut through. The county council and UK Government's Department for Transport (DfT) require an appraisal of the project accounting for timesavings, loss of natural environment and other factors. You have been recommended to use a social discount rate of . 0.044 1 The site of the new trunk road will need to be purchased at a cost of $1.3m (using a compulsory purchase order), and the project will need to be planned at a cost of around 57200. Both the purchase of the land and the planning agreement must be in place before construction can begin. Initial costs estimated by the contractor, which occur in Year 0, include site clearance estimated at around 220000, and initial ground works at 1210000 . Construction costs occur in Year 1, Year 2, and Year 3 and include building materials at 2035000, and plant rental at 660000. These costs have been fixed with the contractor and so remain the same for each year. Wage cost are for 220 construction workers at 19.00 per hour, and a site manager at 34 per hour. Estimated staffing times are 34 hours per week all year (47 weeks) for the site manager, and 27 hours per week all year for the construction workers (47 weeks). The staffing times remain the same in Year 1, Year 2 and Year 3 and wages grow at the rate equivalent to 0.012 . The development of the road causes loss to different parts of the natural parkland. The local economists have agreed that the loss per year for each zones are in the below table. Zone Average loss (per year) A B C 137500 165000 330000 There is a significant maintenance cost associated with the new trunk road estimated at 101200 per annum. This cost will begin in Year 4 following the completion of the road. The growth rate for this cost is estimated at 0.03 It is estimated that the average house value will decrease from its current level of $250,000 to around 209000 as a result of the project. This will affect 110 houses close to the road. 2 The benefits of the new trunk road including reduced congestion and subsequent timesavings, as well as some estimated accident reduction. The benefits due to time savings are estimated to be around 165000 (worktime savings by cars), 143000 (commuting by cars) and 2200000 (work by large vehicles). These savings will begin in the beginning of Year 4 and continue until the end of the CBA appraisal period (Year 20) with an annual growth rate of 3% from Year 4 to Year 10 and 0.5% from Year 11 to Year 20. Estimated benefits in relation to accident reduction are due to estimated reduction in the current rate of fatalities on the road, and reduction in serious and slight accidents as well as damage made to vehicles. The reductions should be included from Year 4 to Year 20. Estimated values of these benefits are around 922500 per year with the lower bound of 795000 and upper bound of . 1050000 In addition to this, it is expected that the new trunk road will reduce the ongoing cost of maintenance on the existing road, producing annual savings of $50,000. This saving will begin in the beginning of Year 4 and continue until the end of the CBA appraisal period (Year 20) with an annual growth rate of 3%. Questions 1. Using the data on costs and benefits provided, submit an excel spreadsheet using CBA Builder Simple (maximum 5 marks - AOL KS1.2). 2. Using the information given in a worksheet \"Sensitivity Analysis\" to answer following questions a. Discuss the meaning of the calculated value a breakeven discount rate (maximum 2 marks - AOL KS1.1) b. Discuss the purpose of conducting this sensitivity analysis (maximum 3 marks - AOL KS1.1). 3 3. Construct a table listing the major present values of cost and benefits (maximum 2 marks- AOL KS1.2). Use this table and answer two following questions: a. What are cost item (one item) and benefit item (one item) do you think will have the most impact on the net present value of the project? Justify your answers. (maximum 4 marks - AOL KS1.1) b. Take the view of a more pessimistic person, what variable(s) in the cost and benefit sides would you like to vary its value (i.e. to change or to modify with various values) in order to assess the sensitivity of the NPV? Provide arguments for your answer. (maximum 4 marks - AOL KS1.1) 4. Remove those items that do not have market prices in the cost and benefit sides, then construct a CBA Builder. Using the newly constructed CBA Builder, answer the following questions a. Fill in answers to the below table (maximum 3 marks AOL KS1.2) Criteria CBA Builder with all costs and benefits included (done in Question 1) CBA Builder without nonmarket costs and benefits (done in Question 4) Net Present Value Break-even IRR IRR b. Comment on the implication and significance of including all non-market costs and benefits on the NPV, 4 break-event IRR and IRR (maximum 2 marks - AOL KS1.1) Online submission requirement 1. For Question 1 & 4: submit TWO DIFFERENT Excel spreadsheets. Please name your files as Nxxx_CBA_Q1.xlsx and Nxxx_CBA_Q4.xlsx where xxx is your student number. 2. For Questions 2 & 3: please provide a short Word document or pdf, highlighting your answers. 5 Enter One-off Costs Name of Cost site purchased Plinning site clearance +grou all parts loss natural Bulding materials Plant rental construction workers site manager maintenance cost Effected Houses Monetary Value 1.300m 57,200.00 1.430m 632,500.00 2.035m 660,000.00 5.304m 54,332.00 101,200.00 4.510m Year Discount Rate 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 4 Enter Costs Occurring on Multiple Years Name of Cost site purchased Plinning site clearance + ground works all parts loss natural parkland. Bulding materials Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (C) 0 1 1.300m 0.00 1.300m 0.00 1.300m 57,200.00 0.00 57,200.00 0.00 57,200.00 1.430m 0.00 1.430m 0.00 1.430m 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 2.035m 0.00 2.035m 0.00 2.035m Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate Plant rental PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate construction workers PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate site manager PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate maintenance cost PV (C) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate Effected Houses PV (C) NPV Annual Costs 660,000.00 0.00 660,000.00 0.00 660,000.00 5.304m 0.01 0.00 5.305m 0.00 5.305m 54,332.00 0.01 0.00 54,338.52 0.00 54,338.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.510m 0.00 4.510m 0.00 0.00 4.510m 15.984m Total Net Present Value of Costs COSTS PV of Cost 1.300m 57,200.00 1.430m 632,500.00 2.035m 660,000.00 5.304m 54,332.00 101,200.00 4.510m 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 3 4 5 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 2.035m 632,500.00 2.035m 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 2.035m 2.035m 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.035m 2.035m 0.00 0.00 0.00 660,000.00 660,000.00 660,000.00 660,000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 660,000.00 5.304m 0.01 660,000.00 5.304m 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.306m 5.306m 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.306m 54,332.00 0.01 5.306m 54,332.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 54,345.04 54,351.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 54,345.04 54,351.56 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 101,321.49 101,351.89 101,382.30 0.00 4.510m 0.00 4.510m 101,321.49 4.510m 101,351.89 4.510m 101,382.30 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 13.198m 4.510m 13.198m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 147.614m BENEFITS 7 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 Year Number 9 10 11 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 101,412.71 101,443.14 101,473.57 101,504.01 101,534.46 101,564.92 101,412.71 4.510m 101,443.14 4.510m 101,473.57 4.510m 101,504.01 4.510m 101,534.46 4.510m 101,564.92 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 13 14 15 16 17 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 101,595.39 101,625.87 101,656.36 101,686.85 101,717.36 101,747.88 101,595.39 4.510m 101,625.87 4.510m 101,656.36 4.510m 101,686.85 4.510m 101,717.36 4.510m 101,747.88 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m 19 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 632,500.00 0.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 632,500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 0.00 101,200.00 0.03 101,778.40 101,808.93 101,778.40 4.510m 101,808.93 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 4.510m 5.244m 4.510m 5.244m Enter One-off Benefits Name of Benefit Monetary Value worktime savings by cars commuting by cars work by large vehicle accident reduction accident reduction lo accident reduction u Reduce cost of main 165,000.00 143,000.00 2.200m 922,500.00 795,000.00 1.050m 50,000.00 Year Discount Rate 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Enter Benefits Occurring on Multiple Years Name of Benefit Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () worktime Discount Rate savings by cars PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate commuting by cars PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate work by large vehicles PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate accident reduction PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () accident reduction Discount Rate lower bound 0 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 accident reduction lower bound PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () accident reduction Discount Rate upper bound PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate Reduce cost of maintenance PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) Monetary Value () Growth Rate Lag Factor Compound Value () Discount Rate PV (B) NPV Annual Benefits 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Net Present Value of Benefits BENEFITS PV of Benefit 165,000.00 143,000.00 2.200m 922,500.00 795,000.00 1.050m 50,000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 3 4 165,000.00 0.03 5 165,000.00 0.03 6 165,000.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 165,198.09 165,247.65 165,297.22 0.00 0.00 165,198.09 143,000.00 0.03 165,247.65 143,000.00 0.03 165,297.22 143,000.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 143,171.68 143,214.63 143,257.59 0.00 0.00 143,171.68 2.200m 0.03 143,214.63 2.200m 0.03 143,257.59 2.200m 0.03 0.00 0.00 2.203m 2.203m 2.204m 0.00 0.00 2.203m 922,500.00 2.203m 922,500.00 2.204m 922,500.00 0.00 0.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 0.00 0.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 0.00 0.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 0.00 0.00 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 0.00 0.00 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 0.00 0.00 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 50,060.03 50,075.05 50,090.07 0.00 0.00 50,060.03 50,075.05 50,090.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.329m 0.00 5.329m 0.00 5.330m 95.918m ENEFITS 7 165,000.00 0.03 8 165,000.00 0.03 Year Number 9 10 165,000.00 165,000.00 0.03 0.03 11 165,000.00 0.01 12 165,000.00 0.01 165,346.81 165,396.42 165,446.03 165,495.67 165,090.77 165,099.03 165,346.81 143,000.00 0.03 165,396.42 143,000.00 0.03 165,446.03 143,000.00 0.03 165,495.67 143,000.00 0.03 165,090.77 143,000.00 0.01 165,099.03 143,000.00 0.01 143,300.57 143,343.56 143,386.56 143,429.58 143,078.67 143,085.82 143,300.57 2.200m 0.03 143,343.56 2.200m 0.03 143,386.56 2.200m 0.03 143,429.58 2.200m 0.03 143,078.67 2.200m 0.01 143,085.82 2.200m 0.01 2.205m 2.205m 2.206m 2.207m 2.201m 2.201m 2.205m 922,500.00 2.205m 922,500.00 2.206m 922,500.00 2.207m 922,500.00 2.201m 922,500.00 2.201m 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 50,105.09 50,120.13 50,135.16 50,150.20 50,165.25 50,180.30 50,105.09 50,120.13 50,135.16 50,150.20 50,165.25 50,180.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.331m 0.00 5.332m 0.00 5.332m 0.00 5.333m 0.00 5.327m 0.00 5.327m 13 165,000.00 0.01 14 165,000.00 0.01 15 165,000.00 0.01 16 165,000.00 0.01 17 165,000.00 0.01 18 165,000.00 0.01 165,107.28 165,115.54 165,123.79 165,132.05 165,140.31 165,148.56 165,107.28 143,000.00 0.01 165,115.54 143,000.00 0.01 165,123.79 143,000.00 0.01 165,132.05 143,000.00 0.01 165,140.31 143,000.00 0.01 165,148.56 143,000.00 0.01 143,092.98 143,100.13 143,107.29 143,114.44 143,121.60 143,128.75 143,092.98 2.200m 0.01 143,100.13 2.200m 0.01 143,107.29 2.200m 0.01 143,114.44 2.200m 0.01 143,121.60 2.200m 0.01 143,128.75 2.200m 0.01 2.201m 2.202m 2.202m 2.202m 2.202m 2.202m 2.201m 922,500.00 2.202m 922,500.00 2.202m 922,500.00 2.202m 922,500.00 2.202m 922,500.00 2.202m 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 50,195.35 50,210.41 50,225.47 50,240.54 50,255.61 50,270.69 50,195.35 50,210.41 50,225.47 50,240.54 50,255.61 50,270.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.327m 0.00 5.327m 0.00 5.328m 0.00 5.328m 0.00 5.328m 0.00 5.328m 19 165,000.00 0.01 20 165,000.00 0.01 165,156.82 165,165.08 165,156.82 143,000.00 0.01 165,165.08 143,000.00 0.01 143,135.91 143,143.07 143,135.91 2.200m 0.01 143,143.07 2.200m 0.01 2.202m 2.202m 2.202m 922,500.00 2.202m 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 922,500.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 795,000.00 1.050m 795,000.00 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 1.050m 50,000.00 0.03 50,285.77 50,300.86 50,285.77 50,300.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.328m 0.00 5.328m Results Net Present Value (NPV) NPV = PV (B) - PV (C) NPV = -51.695m Net Present Value (NPV) with Horizon Valu NPV = PV (B) - PV (C) + PV (H) NPV = 678,783.544m Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) BCR = PV (B) / PV (C) BCR = 0.65 orizon Value Estimating a Horizon Value Beginning of Horizon Period (Year) Social Discount Rate 20 0.044 Method Simple Projection Future Value for Net Benefits () 95.918m Growth/Decline Rate (%) Horizon Value 3% ### 678.829bn Scrap Value Scrap value () 5.328m Horizon Value 5.279m Initial Value of Asset () Depreciation Rate (%) Depreciation Period (Years) 1.430m 4% 20 Horizon Value 1.419m Initial Construction Cost () Reduction Factor (%) 2.695m 80% 21560 Horizon Value 21,361.75 Depreciated Value Initial Construction Cost ### Discount Rate Sensitivity Analysis Social Discount Rate: Discounted Horizon Value (): 6E+012 Discount Rate (-) 5E+012 4E+012 3E+012 2E+012 2E+012 2E+012 1E+012 1E+012 8E+011 7E+011 6E+011 Discount Rate (+) 4E+011 4E+011 3E+011 2E+011 2E+011 2E+011 1E+011 1E+011 9E+010 Multiple year Benefits -10.0 -9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 4% 678.835bn 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 NPV -61.177m -61.054m -60.817m -60.490m -60.093m -59.643m -59.151m -58.629m -58.083m -57.522m -56.950m -56.371m -55.788m -55.206m -54.625m -54.047m -53.475m -52.909m -52.349m -51.797m -51.253m One-off 8E+006 8E+006 8E+006 7E+006 7E+006 7E+006 6E+006 6E+006 6E+006 6E+006 5E+006 5E+006 5E+006 5E+006 5E+006 4E+006 4E+006 4E+006 4E+006 4E+006 4E+006 685135352762.252 NPV + H 6,197,574.061m 4,914,655.153m 3,907,189.354m 3,113,953.451m 2,487,785.533m 1,992,253.313m 1,599,135.605m 1,286,512.808m 1,037,314.893m 838,214.123m 678,778.290m 550,821.395m 447,904.403m 364,950.362m 297,946.929m 243,715