Question
EMPIRICAL RESULTS For Walmart 1. Rate of Return E-views was used to calculate the sum of the dividend yield and capital gain. WMT Dividend Yield
EMPIRICAL RESULTS For Walmart
1. Rate of Return
E-views was used to calculate the sum of the dividend yield and capital gain.
WMT
Dividend Yield for WMT (WMT) = WMT x 400 Dividend Yield for WMT (WMT) = 1.41%
(WMT-WMT(1))
Capital Gain for WMT (WMT) = WMT (1) x 1200
Capital Gain for WMT (WMT) = 0.2billion
Rate of Return (WMT) = Dividend Yield for WMT (WMT) + Capital Gain for WMT (WMT)
Rate of Return (WMT) = 1.890 + 6.947 =8.837%
2. Estimating Beta
The approximate beta () is determined through the rate of return of WMT (WMT) and the return of the market ()
(1)
= (1) x 1200
(1)
= (1) x 1200
= 8.545%
WMT = 8.837%
WMT = WMT + WMT +
WMT = 3.274 + 0.651
WMT = 0.651
= 1
Dependent Variable: RWMT
Method: Least Squares
Date: 010/19/23 Time: 19:06
Sample (adjusted): 1990M01 2022M08
Included observations: 392 after adjustments
C | 3.27469 | 4.105332 0.797668 | 0.4255 |
RDJIA | 0.650989 | 0.080701 8.066643 | 0 |
R-squared | 0.14299 | Mean dependent var | 8.837221 |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.140793 | S.D. dependent var | 86.44258 |
S.E. of regression | 80.12659 | Akaike info criterion | 11.61018 |
Sum squared resid | 2503905 | Schwarz criterion | 11.63044 |
Log likelihood | -2273.6 | Hannan-Quinn criter. | 11.61821 |
F-statistic | 65.07073 | Durbin-Watson stat | 2.139828 |
Prob(F-statistic) | 0 |
3. Expected Rate of Return
Using CAPM equation
E(WMT) = + WMT[(RDJIA) RRF]
Where, = 5.07%, (RDJIA) = 8.545%, WMT = 0.651
(WMT) = 7.332%
4. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
= (1 ) + +
Long term interest I
Calculating the cost of debt (d) = Long term debt = D
KWMTD = 34865,928 = 0.0248 or 2.48%
KWMTS = E(RWMT) = 7.332%
The value line, V = D + S will be used to estimate the weight.
V = 52.907 + 425 = 477.907 billion
WWMTd = DV = 47752.907.907 = 0.1107 or 11.07%
WWMTS = VS = 477425.907 = 0.88929 or 88.929%
KWMTWACC = WJdNJ x KdWMT(1-T) + WWMTS x KSWMT
Where, T = 0.16
KWMTWACC = 11.07 x 2.48(1-0.16) + 88.929 x 7.332 = 6.751%
5. Dividend Policy
Estimating (lambda) will provide the dividend policy.
The function of the equation is RWMT stt3m (RDJIA - stt3m) WMT
Lambda () = 0.6254
Obtaining the Pairwise Granger Causality tests, we accept the null hypothesis since the probability (0.5396) is greater than the F-Statistic (0.6179).
Dependent Variable: RWMT
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/15/23 Time: 19:11
Sample (adjusted): 1990M01 2021M09
Included observations: 381 after adjustments
STT3M | 1.259213 | 1.285155 | 0.979814 | 0.3278 |
RDJIA-STT3M | 0.657925 | 0.082813 | 7.944712 | 0 |
DYWMT 0.625424 2.046446 0.305615 0.7601
R-squared | 0.141621 | Mean dependent var | 8.982829 |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.137079 | S.D. dependent var | 87.12382 |
S.E. of regression | 80.93239 | Akaike info criterion | 11.63295 |
Sum squared resid | 2475920 | Schwarz criterion | 11.66399 |
Log likelihood | -2213.08 | Hannan -Quinn criter. | 11.64527 |
Durbin-Watson stat | 2.146744 |
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 07/05/23 Time: 19:14
Sample: 1990M01 2022M12
Lags: 2
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob.
RWMT does not Granger Cause
DYWMT 390 1.13597 0.3222
DYWMT does not Granger Cause RWMT 0.6179 0.5396
6. Covering Historic Rate Premium
The historic rate premium is used to determine whether a stock is underpriced or overpriced.
RWMT = RRF + HRP
Where, HRP = HRWMT - HR3mT-bill
Therefore, RWMT = 8.837%
The expected return for Johnson and Johnson is 7.332% and its historical risk premium is 8.837%. This means that the historical risk premium is higher than the expected return and therefore, the company is overpriced. It is advised investors sell their stock in the company.
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