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(Epidemiology) Suppose To ERcontains sizes of different populations carrying a particular infection in year 0; for example, when tracking malaria we might take toi to
("Epidemiology") Suppose To ER"contains sizes of different populations carrying a particular infection in year 0; for example, when tracking malaria we might take toi to be the number of humans with malaria and Po2 to be the number of mosquitoes carrying the disease. By writing relationships like "The average mosquito infects two humans," we can write a matrix M such that E1 = Mo predicts populations in year 1, 72 = M 7o predicts populations in year 2, and so on. (a) The spectral radius p(M) is given by max;|4i|, where the eigenvalues of M are 11,..., dk. Epidemiologists call this number the "reproduction number Roof M. Explain the difference between the cases Ro 1 in terms of the spread of disease. Which case is more dangerous? (b) Suppose we only care about proportions. For instance, we might use M E R50x50 to model transmission of diseases between residents in each of the 50 states of the USA, and we only care about the fraction of the total people with a disease who live in each state. If yo holds these proportions in year 0, give an iterative scheme to predict proportions in future years. Characterize behavior as time goes to infinity. ("Epidemiology") Suppose To ER"contains sizes of different populations carrying a particular infection in year 0; for example, when tracking malaria we might take toi to be the number of humans with malaria and Po2 to be the number of mosquitoes carrying the disease. By writing relationships like "The average mosquito infects two humans," we can write a matrix M such that E1 = Mo predicts populations in year 1, 72 = M 7o predicts populations in year 2, and so on. (a) The spectral radius p(M) is given by max;|4i|, where the eigenvalues of M are 11,..., dk. Epidemiologists call this number the "reproduction number Roof M. Explain the difference between the cases Ro 1 in terms of the spread of disease. Which case is more dangerous? (b) Suppose we only care about proportions. For instance, we might use M E R50x50 to model transmission of diseases between residents in each of the 50 states of the USA, and we only care about the fraction of the total people with a disease who live in each state. If yo holds these proportions in year 0, give an iterative scheme to predict proportions in future years. Characterize behavior as time goes to infinity
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