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Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model Following are forecasts of sales, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and net operating assets (NOA) as of

Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model Following are forecasts of sales, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and net operating assets (NOA) as of January 31, 2016, for Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.

Reported Horizon Period
$ millions 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Terminal Period
Sales $482,130 $486,951 $491,821 $496,739 $501,706 $506,723
NOPAT 16,634 17,043 17,214 17,386 17,560 17,735
NOA 124,940 126,186 127,448 128,722 130,009 131,309

Answer the following requirements assuming a discount rate (WACC) of 7%, a terminal period growth rate of 1%, common shares outstanding of 3,144 million, net nonoperating obligations (NNO) of $41,329 million, and noncontrolling interest (NCI) on the balance sheet of $3,065 million. (a) Estimate the value of a share of Wal-Mart's common stock using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model as of January 31, 2016.

Rounding Instructions:

  • Round your answer to the nearest whole number except for the discount factors and the stock price per share.

  • Round the discount factors to five decimal places and the stock price to two decimal places.

  • Use your rounded answers for subsequent calculations.

Do not use negative signs with any of your answers below.

Reported Forecast Horizon
WMT ($ millions) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Terminal Period
Increase in NOA Answer Answer Answer Answer Answer
FCFF (NOPAT - Increase in NOA) Answer Answer Answer Answer Answer
Discount factor [1/(1+rw)t] (round 5 decimal places) Answer Answer Answer Answer
Present value of horizon FCFF Answer Answer Answer Answer
Cumulative present value of horizon FCFF Answer
Present value of terminal FCFF Answer
Total firm value Answer
NNO Answer
NCI Answer
Firm equity value Answer
Shares outstanding (millions) Answer
Stock price per share Answer (round two decimal places)

(b)Wal-Mart (WMT) stock closed at $68.80 on March 30, 2016, the date the 10-K was filed with the SEC. How does your valuation estimate compare with this closing price? What do you believe are some reasons for the difference?

Stock prices are a function of many factors. It is impossible to speculate on the reasons for the difference.

Our stock price estimate is slightly higher than the WMT market price, indicating that we believe that WMT stock is slightly undervalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our higher stock price estimate might be due to more optimistic forecasts or a lower discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions.

Our stock price estimate is slightly higher than the WMT market price, indicating that we believe that WMT stock is slightly undervalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our higher stock price estimate might be due to more pessimistic forecasts or a higher discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions.

Our stock price estimate is slightly higher than the WMT market price, indicating that we believe that WMT stock is slightly overvalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our higher stock price estimate might be due to more pessimistic forecasts or a higher discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions.

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