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Estimating Share Value Using the ROPI Model Assume following are forecasts of Abercrombie & Fitch's sales, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and net
Estimating Share Value Using the ROPI Model Assume following are forecasts of Abercrombie & Fitch's sales, net operating profit after tax (NOPAT), and net operating assets (NOA) as of January 29, 2011. Refer to the information in the table to answer the following requirements. (in millions) Sales NOPAT NOA Reported 2011 Horizon Period 2012 2013 2014 2015 Terminal Period $3,750 $4,500 $5,400 $6,480 $7,776 464 582 650 818 965 1,359 1,631 1,935 2,311 2,760 $ 7,853 995 2,826 Answer the following requirements assuming a discount rate (WACC) of 13.3 %, a terminal period growth rate of 1%, common shares outstanding of 86.2 million, and net nonoperating obligations (NNO) of $(279) million (negative NNO reflects net nonoperating assets such as investments rather than net obligations). (a) Estimate the value of a share of Abercrombie & Fitch common stock using the residual operating income (ROPI) model as of January 29, 2011. Rounding instructions: Round answers to the nearest whole number unless noted otherwise. Use your rounded answers for subsequent calculations. Do not use negative signs with any of your answers. Reported 2011 (in millions) ROPI (NOPAT [NOABeg x rw]). Discount factor [1/(1+rw)t] Present value of horizon ROPI (Round5 decimal places) Cum present value of horizon ROPI $ Present value of terminal ROPI NOA Total firm value 0 0 0 0 Firm equity value $ 0 Shares outstanding (millions) Stock price per share $ NNO Horizon Period Terminal 2012 2013 2014 2015 Period 0 0 0 0. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (round one decimal place) 0 (round two decimal places) (b) Assume Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) stock closed at $77.56 on March 2, 2011. How does your valuation estimate compare with this closing price? What do you believe are some reasons for the difference? Stock prices are a function of many factors. It is impossible to speculate on the reasons for the difference. Our stock price estimate is lower than the ANF market price, indicating that we believe that ANF stock is undervalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our lower stock price estimate might be due to more optimistic forecasts or a lower discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions. Our stock price estimate is lower than the ANF market price, indicating that we believe that ANF stock is overvalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our lower stock price estimate might be due to more optimistic forecasts or a lower discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions. COur stock price estimate is lower than the ANF market price, indicating that we believe that ANF stock is overvalued. Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Our lower stock price estimate might be due to more pessimistic forecasts or a higher discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts' model assumptions.
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