Ex-Ante Standard Deviation An analyst estimates a 18% probability of a recession next year, a 53% probability of normal economic growth and a 29% probability of a strong recovery. If a recession occurs a stock is projected to have a -16.8% return. With normal growth the stock will generate a 11.8% return and if the strong recovery occurs the stock will have a 26.8% rate of return. This stock's standard deviation is