Ex-Ante Standard Deviation An analyst estimates a 20% probability of a recession next year, a 44% probability of normal economic growth and a 36% probability of a strong recovery. If a recession occurs a stock is projected to have a -15.5% return. With normal growth the stock will generate a 10.5% return and if the strong recovery occurs the stock will have a 25.5% rate of return. This stock's standard deviation is _______.

• 11.65%

• 10.70%

• 14.70%

• 11.92%