Exercise Using this data, answer the following questions. 1. Since 2018, what was the average surprise in the nonfarm payroll release? What months had the largest positive and negative surprises? How might you summarize the accuracy of the market expectations of the nonfarm payroll release? 2. Since 2018, what was the average absolute change in 10-year Treasury rates during the days of the nonfarm payroll release? What months had the largest positive and negative surprises? 3. Do surprises in the nonfarm payroll release affect 10-year Treasury rates? Note: there are several ways in which you might answer this, so feel free to be creative. What is the purpose of using surprises in nonfarm payrolls rather than the actual level of nonfarm payrolls? 4. The current forecast for the increase in nonfarm payrolls for November 2019 is +100k. Suppose you expect an increase of +250k, what do you forecast will happen to 10-year Treasury rates on December 6, 2019? What do you forecast will happen to the prices of 10-year Treasury securities? Suppose instead that you expect an increase of +50k in nonfarm payrolls. Exercise Using this data, answer the following questions. 1. Since 2018, what was the average surprise in the nonfarm payroll release? What months had the largest positive and negative surprises? How might you summarize the accuracy of the market expectations of the nonfarm payroll release? 2. Since 2018, what was the average absolute change in 10-year Treasury rates during the days of the nonfarm payroll release? What months had the largest positive and negative surprises? 3. Do surprises in the nonfarm payroll release affect 10-year Treasury rates? Note: there are several ways in which you might answer this, so feel free to be creative. What is the purpose of using surprises in nonfarm payrolls rather than the actual level of nonfarm payrolls? 4. The current forecast for the increase in nonfarm payrolls for November 2019 is +100k. Suppose you expect an increase of +250k, what do you forecast will happen to 10-year Treasury rates on December 6, 2019? What do you forecast will happen to the prices of 10-year Treasury securities? Suppose instead that you expect an increase of +50k in nonfarm payrolls