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EXPERTS' VIEWS ON THE FORECASTING OF OIL PRICE US crude oil prices will average between US$80 (RM364.32) and US$100 (RM455.4) per barrel next year, investors
EXPERTS' VIEWS ON THE FORECASTING OF OIL PRICE US crude oil prices will average between US\$80 (RM364.32) and US\$100 (RM455.4) per barrel next year, investors attending a Barclays conference estimate, suggesting a stronger outlook than future prices suggest. Oil futures for October traded at US $85 (RM387) a barrel on Monday, with the outlook for 2023 at about US\$79 (RM359.77) a barrel. Prices had traded over US $100 a barrel earlier this year on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. Oil has cooled on concerns of an economic slowdown. Separately, the Bank of America boosted its 2023 US oil price forecast by US\$4 (RM18.22) to US\$94 (RM428.1) a barrel, pointing to what it called a modest but demonstrable production cut at the last Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting. On the other hand, the Bank of America boosted its 2023 US oil price forecast by US $4 (RM18.22) to US\$94 (RM428.1) a barrel, pointing to what it called a modest but demonstrable production cut at the last Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting. The producing group in early September agreed to cut output by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.1%, of total global demand, amid worries of oversupply and fears of a weakening global economy. In the Barclays survey, some 56% of participants at its chief executive officer energy and power conference here indicated they expect global oil inventories to be lower over the next 12 months. Supply chain disruptions and inflation continue to roil fossil fuel production. Slightly over half of survey respondents said they expect US oil output to grow by 500,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd between the fourth quarter of this year and next. (Adapted from The Star, 2022) Referring to the above article, answer the following question. Critically review the forecasted price as commented by the industry experts for the year 2023 in the context of qualitative forecasting method. You may include pros \& cons of the approached used above. [10 Marks]
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