Question
f we toss a tack, it has two possible results: the tack lands and comes to rest with its point straight up, or on its
f we "toss" a tack, it has two possible results: the tack lands and comes to rest with its point straight
up, or on its side. We wish to estimate as accurately as possible the probability it comes to rest pointing
straight up. For this we would like to toss the tack many times similar to tossing the coin to estimate
the probability of a "Heads". To this end, we can take a box with 10 presumably identical tacks (as
manufactured by Acme) and shake the box and then determine how many of the tacks end up pointing
up. We expect this to correspond to ten tosses of a single coin (with all ten presumably independent
experiments). Shake the box and count the number of tacks ending up pointing up a total of 100 times
corresponding to 1000 tosses of a tack. From your data, estimate the probability that one of these
tacks ends up pointing up, along with a 90% confidence interval. Explain your calculations.
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