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Ferrari IPO 2015 Guide questions 1. What is going on at Ferrari? At what price do you think the shares should be sold? 2. Tell
Ferrari IPO 2015 Guide questions 1. What is going on at Ferrari? At what price do you think the shares should be sold? 2. Tell me more about your market-multiples approach. How does it work? What are the strengths and weaknesses of using a market multiples approach in valuation? 3. Tell me more about DCF approach. How does it work? with the excel calculation for DCF using exhibit 8
Exhibit 8 | |||||||
FERRARI: THE 2015 INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING | |||||||
Ferrari Forecast (Millions of Euro, except as noted) | |||||||
Assumptions | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
Growth in Cars Shipped | 3.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | |
Growth in Revenue/Car | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | ||
Growth in Engine Revenue | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | ||
Growth in Other Revenue | 3.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | ||
Operating Margin - Cars | 12.5% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | |
Operating Margin - Engines | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | |
Operating Margin - All Other Revenue | 24.9% | 25.0% | 27.0% | 28.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | |
Net Working Capital Turnover | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
Net Fixed Asset Turnover | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | |
Deprec&Amort/PPE | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | |
Financial Forecast | |||||||
Car Shipments (000s) | 7.26 | 7.76 | 8.15 | 8.48 | 8.82 | 9.08 | |
Avg Revenue per Car (Euro 000s) | 268 | 281 | 295 | 310 | 326 | 342 | |
Car Revenue | 1,944 | 2,184 | 2,408 | 2,629 | 2,871 | 3,105 | |
Engine Revenue | 311 | 320 | 330 | 340 | 350 | 361 | |
All other Revenue | 507 | 523 | 554 | 587 | 623 | 660 | |
Total Revenue | 2,762 | 3,027 | 3,292 | 3,556 | 3,844 | 4,126 | |
Operating Profit-Cars | 243 | 284 | 325 | 368 | 402 | 435 | |
Operating Profit-Engines | 28 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | |
Operating Profit-All Other Revenue | 126 | 131 | 150 | 164 | 187 | 198 | |
Total Operating Profit | 398 | 447 | 508 | 567 | 624 | 669 | |
Net Working Capital | 1,425 | 1,513 | 1,568 | 1,617 | 1,747 | 1,875 | |
Net PP&E and Int. Assets | 851 | 932 | 998 | 1,016 | 1,039 | 1,086 | |
Dep & Amort | 289 | 317 | 339 | 345 | 353 | 369 | |
Total Revenue Growth | 18% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | |
EBITDA Margin | 25% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 25% | |
Source: Case Writer Estimates |
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