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First: Calculate the mean revenue per location. Construct a decision tree that analyzes the possibility of achieving the mean revenue on an ongoing basis along
First:
Calculate the mean revenue per location. Construct a decision tree that analyzes the possibility of achieving the mean revenue on an ongoing basis along with a correspondingly high and low estimate. Use the following data to construct your decision tree:
2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Mean | |
UK1 | $501,383.00 | $9,987.00 | $355,754.00 | $63,201.00 | $1,413,210.00 | $307,007.00 | $1,313,807.00 | $1,364,346.00 | $970,675.00 | $237,400.00 | $653,677.00 |
UK2 | $970,232.00 | $876,629.00 | $1,911,112.00 | $2,787,308.00 | $285,652.00 | $181,504.00 | $1,310,174.00 | $1,549,434.00 | $1,003,163.00 | $2,575,009.00 | $1,345,021.70 |
EU1 | $440,018.00 | $1,010,799.00 | $427,976.00 | $626,356.00 | $1,329,717.00 | $1,200,918.00 | $503,506.00 | $257,075.00 | $1,594,713.00 | $975,788.00 | $836,686.60 |
EU2 | $1,357,063.00 | $472,882.00 | $745,997.00 | $1,891,832.00 | $1,503,897.00 | $244,661.00 | $1,201,536.00 | $198,538.00 | $284,613.00 | $846,488.00 | $874,750.70 |
EU3 | $961,521.00 | $598,581.00 | $926,519.00 | $1,063,540.00 | $1,570,984.00 | $611,696.00 | $1,328,094.00 | $1,416,895.00 | $1,184,411.00 | $1,690,089.00 | $1,135,233.00 |
$15,000,000.00 | $16,100,000.00 | $16,500,000.00 | $16,850,000.00 | $17,100,000.00 | $17,250,000.00 | $17,750,000.00 | $18,201,000.00 | $18,500,000.00 | $18,750,000.00 | $17,200,100.00 |
Region | Average Rev. Est | Low Est | High Est | Prob. High | Prob. Average | Prob. Low |
UK1 | Mean + 5% | Mean - 5% | Mean + 15% | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
UK2 | Mean + 7% | Mean - 7% | Mean + 20% | 0.15 | 0.5 | 0.35 |
EU1 | Mean + 5% | Mean - 10% | Mean + 18% | 0.05 | 0.6 | 0.35 |
EU2 | Mean + 5% | Mean - 10% | Mean + 25% | 0.2 | 0.45 | 0.35 |
EU3 | Mean + 8% | Mean - 15% | Mean + 15% | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Next:
Construct your decision tree in Excel and calculate the expected value
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