First identified in Wuhan, China, in December $2019,$ COVID$-19$ has since become a pandemic wreaking havoc around the globe. The outbreak has become one of the most serious disruptions that has occurred during the last ten decades and has resulted in substantial loss of lives and financial losses across all sectors of the global economy.

MGMT $371$ has a comprehensive case that students are required to complete in the last week of the term. Instead of using a case from the text book you will be analyzing a work in process case related to the ever evolving Covid$-19$ outbreak. The case is a work in process as it is under development and not a finished product that has been analyzed and vetted before deployment. As such I expect imperfections in the case study and am not expecting perfection from our students. My plan is to incorporate some of the analysis done by students to make this a better product for the next offering of the course.

The purpose of this comprehensive case is to collect data on Covid$-19$ cases and deaths from Italy, New Zealand, South Korea and United States, cleanse the collected data, use visual and descriptive analytics to summarize the collected data to draw some preliminary conclusions, use a forecasting technique to forecast the number of daily cases cumulative cases and deaths, determine an error metric for the daily cases, cumulative cases and the number of deaths and use these to summarize the findings for each country. Popular media has reported that the early measures adopted by New Zealand and South Korea helped keep the number of cases and fatalities low while delays in testing and mitigation efforts in Italy and US are partly responsible for the large number of cases and deaths.

Steps

Collect data on the number of Covid$-19$ related cases and deaths for Italy, New Zealand, South Korea and United States from the start of the outbreak to November $25$th$,2021.$ The Covid$-9$ dashboard maintained by the coronavirus resource center at Johns Hopkins University and Medicine is considered to be a trusted source. You can also search Google using search criteria such as $$covid$-19$ CASES IN USA$.$

Cleanse collected data, if needed and apply visual and descriptive analytics to summarize the data for each country. Use this to draw any initial conclusion.

Use an appropriate forecasting model to forecast the daily cases, cumulative cases and the number of deaths for each country and determine the Mean Absolute Deviation $($MAD$)$ for the daily case, cumulative cases and number of deaths for each country. Hint: an exponential forecast model will be an appropriate model. The Gompertz Curve is an example of an exponential model and you will have to research how to use the model.