Five years ago, the 10-year bond was paying 7.9%, which would result in approximately 77% in interest over the coming decade. At the same time, the 5-year bond was paying just 7.7%, or a total of 38.5% over the five years. According to the expectations theory, investors must have expected the current 5-year rate to be 8.1% because at that rate, the total return over ten years would have been the same on a 10-year bond and on two consecutive 5-year bonds