Following the discussion prompt this week, I looked in the National Institute of Justice Database for an article. Using the filter to find topics involving probability and choosing amongst scholarly publications released within the last year, I settled on an interesting research project focusing on probability models to predict head injury risk in pediatric falls. The connection to Public Safety is that the intent of this project is to help forensic examiners accurately differentiate between abuse cases and accidents when investigating incidents involving children. The researchers developed an evidence-based statistical model to yield predictions on probable biomechanical causes. The data used to generate the model was collected though video monitoring of children at a care facility while wearing head mounted accelerometers. (Bertocci et al., 2023).

The project had three specific aims: one, to describe characteristics of head injuries associated with falls, two, to validate a biofidelic 3D computer model of a human child for accurate simulations of head acceleration and impact during fall scenarios, and three, to develop evidence-based statistical models to indicate the probability factors of fall causes based on injury results. (Bertocci et al., 2023).

There were four key sets of data collected: fall characteristics, child characteristics, detailed injury and clinical findings, and the fall environment. The severity of each injury examined was assigned based on scales ranging from 1-6, with 1 being a minor injury, and 6 being a maximal (untreatable) injury. Diagnostic imaging, radiology, and photo documentation of injuries all contributed to the data set with permission from the child subjects caregivers. It should be clear that no children were placed in a situation designed to cause a fall, rather they relied on naturally occurring incidents in a standard childcare facility with all appropriate safety measures. The setting included indoor areas and an outdoor playground. The study involved 101 children out of 1266 who were screened. Over 80 falls were able to be reconstructed to obtain biomechanical outcomes for the digital modeling. (Bertocci et al., 2023).

The key for determining the biomechanical outcomes of each fall was careful medical examinations to identify characteristics of natural falls, verses the documented results from known abuse cases. These comparisons can be regenerated within their 3D modeling to determine probable cause in new events. Moving forward, forensic examiners will have more tools and data sets to assist in their examination of incident cases involving pediatric falls. (Bertocci et al., 2023).

Reference

Bertocci, G., Pierce, M., Dsouza, R., & Thompson, A. (2023). Development of a Probability Model to Predict Head Injury Risk in Pediatric Falls. Office of Justice Programs' National Criminal Justice Reference Service. https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/306560.pdf

Questions:

After reading the text provide reflections and propose new approaches.