Forecasting future commodity prices can be important for many production operations. One such commodity is the price of aluminum ($US per metric ton). . First, create a one period forecast based upon a three month moving average. Second, create a one period forecast based upon exponential smoothing (using a smoothing weight of 0.95). Compare the two forecasts based upon the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure of accuracy. Interpret your results.

The Data:

Month	Price
Jan-18	2,209.73
Feb-18	2,181.79
Mar-18	2,069.24
Apr-18	2,254.69
May-18	2,299.67
Jun-18	2,237.62
Jul-18	2,082.24
Aug-18	2,051.51
Sep-18	2,026.46
Oct-18	2,029.86
Nov-18	1,938.51
Dec-18	1,920.38
Jan-19	1,853.72
Feb-19	1,862.99