Forecasting the Adoption of E-books

1.Assume that you are making a prediction from the time e-books first became available (year 2000). Although early unit sales data for e-books are available, construct your forecast irrespective of these sales.

2.What do you expect the long-run total adoption of e-books to be (i.e., the parameter m in the Bass model)? The total market size, m, should be the total number of potential consumers for e-books as opposed to the total number of e-book purchases/downloads.

3.Do you expect the market for e-books to be guided more by imitators or innovators? Why?

4.What is the 5-year annual forecast of the overall demand for e-books by making assumptions about the number of e-book purchases per consumer per year.

5.Will the adoption of e-books be similar or different than digital music obtained online?

6.Do you think that attitudes about reading/purchasing e-content have changed much in recent years?

7.What role will hardware devices play in the adoption of e-books?

8.Do you expect the size and pattern of diffusion to be different globally as compared to the United States?