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Four analysts cover the stock of Fluorine Chemical. One forecasts a 5% return for the coming year. A second expects the return to be 6%.

Four analysts cover the stock of Fluorine Chemical. One forecasts a 5% return for the coming year. A second expects the return to be 6%. A third predicts a return of 9%. A fourth expects a 2% return in the coming year. You are relatively confident that the return will be positive but not large, so you arbitrarily assigned probabilities of being correct of 28 %, 9%, 17%, and 46%, respectively, to the analysts' forecasts. Given these probabilities, what is Fluorine Chemicals expected return for the coming year?

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