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Given the following data: Dividend Discount Model Three-Stage Example Discount rate (r): 12,00% Growth period (g1): Growth year 5 Initial growth period of EPS 23,00%
Given the following data:
Dividend Discount Model
Three-Stage Example
Discount rate (r): | 12,00% |
Growth period (g1): | |
Growth year | 5 |
Initial growth period of EPS | 23,00% |
Maturity period (g2): | |
Payout at maturity | 45% |
Retention rate at maturity (retent) | 55% |
Growth rate at maturity: r x retent | 6,600% |
Transition period: | |
Transition years | 12 |
Growth rate of EPS (incremental) | 1,26% |
Other information: | |
Current fiscal year EPS | 4,00 |
Current calendar year dividend | 0,50 |
Current payout (p1) | 12,50% |
Growth year payout = current | 12,50% |
Maturity payout (p2) | 45,00% |
Transition years payout (incremental) | 2,50% |
Growth + Transition Years | 17 |
Terminal value (TV) = div1/(r-g) |
Year | Assumption | EPS | growth | Dividend | payout | TV | PV (div+TV) | |
1 | Growth year EPS | 4,92 | 23,00% | 1 | 0,62 | 12,50% | 0,55 | |
2 | Growth year EPS | 6,05 | 23,00% | 2 | 0,76 | 12,50% | 0,60 | |
3 | Growth year EPS | 7,44 | 23,00% | 3 | 0,93 | 12,50% | 0,66 | |
4 | Growth year EPS | 9,16 | 23,00% | 4 | 1,14 | 12,50% | 0,73 | |
5 | Growth year EPS | 11,26 | 23,00% | 5 | 1,41 | 12,50% | 0,80 | |
6 | Transition year EPS | 13,71 | 21,74% | 6 | 2,06 | 15,00% | 1,04 | |
7 | Transition year EPS | 16,52 | 20,48% | 7 | 2,89 | 17,50% | 1,31 | |
8 | Transition year EPS | 19,69 | 19,22% | 8 | 3,94 | 20,00% | 1,59 | |
9 | Transition year EPS | 23,23 | 17,95% | 9 | 5,23 | 22,50% | 1,88 | |
10 | Transition year EPS | 27,10 | 16,69% | 10 | 6,78 | 25,00% | 2,18 | |
11 | Transition year EPS | 31,28 | 15,43% | 11 | 8,60 | 27,50% | 2,47 | |
12 | Transition year EPS | 35,72 | 14,17% | 12 | 10,72 | 30,00% | 2,75 | |
13 | Transition year EPS | 40,33 | 12,91% | 13 | 13,11 | 32,50% | 3,00 | |
14 | Transition year EPS | 45,02 | 11,65% | 14 | 15,76 | 35,00% | 3,22 | |
15 | Transition year EPS | 49,70 | 10,38% | 15 | 18,64 | 37,50% | 3,40 | |
16 | Transition year EPS | 54,23 | 9,12% | 16 | 21,69 | 40,00% | 3,54 | |
17 | Transition year EPS | 58,50 | 7,86% | 17 | 24,86 | 42,50% | 519,648 | 79,30 |
18 | Maturity | 62,36 | 6,60% | 18 | 28,06 | 45,00% | ||
Theoretical price | 109,05 |
Note: EPS = earnings per share
Question:
Fill in the Sensitivity Analysis (two way table):
Discount Rate | ||||||
11% | 11,50% | 12% | 12,50% | 13% | ||
Growth rate at maturity | 5,80% | |||||
6,20% | ||||||
6,60% | ||||||
7% | ||||||
7,40% |
A sensitivity analysis determines how stock values change given different values of discount rate and perpetuity growth rate.
Please demonstrate how you find the solution in Excel (formula)
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