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Given the following forecasts, what is the standard deviation of returns? State ofthe Economy Probability of Occurrence Expected Return Expansion 25% 45% Normal 60% 20%

Given the following forecasts, what is the standard deviation of returns? State ofthe Economy Probability of Occurrence Expected Return Expansion 25% 45% Normal 60% 20% Recession 15% -15% 3.39% 18.41% 11.39% 1.30%

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