Given the following information if an investor expects SPY will drop 2% before the mid of April, 2022. Please construct a collar option strategy based on the expectation and calculate the probability of losing money.

Ticker	Expiration	Type	Spot price	Strike price	Premium	Delta	Vega
UVXY	4/14/2022	Call	22.66	30	4.1	0.48	0.03
UVXY	4/14/2022	Put	22.66	15	1	-0.14	0.02
VIX	4/20/2022	Call	36.09	40	3.4	0.44	0.05
VIX	4/20/2022	Put	36.09	35	7.35	-0.42	0.05
SPY	4/14/2022	Call	420.86	440	5.48	0.29	0.46
SPY	4/14/2022	Put	420.86	400	9.03	-0.30	0.46
SPY	4/14/2022	Call	420.86	500	0.045	0.01	0.02
SPY	4/14/2022	Put	420.86	300	0.81	-0.03	0.08