Question
Go to FRED. Find the following two data series and put into one graph: (i) Real private residential fixed investment, and (ii) Real private non-residential
Go to FRED. Find the following two data series and put into one graph: (i) Real private residential fixed investment, and (ii) Real private non-residential fixed investment. Download the graph and insert it in your document.
What do you think the Fed hoped to achieve by raising interest rates?
Did the higher interest rate seem to have the intended effect on each of the two types of investment spending? Comment briefly on each type of investment spending. (Note: The two graphs will differ in the past few years, so comment on each separately.)
We know that expectations about the state of the economy also affects investment spending. What do the non-residential investment data suggest about the underlying expectations about the future economy?
Last week you assessed various risks to the economy. This week you will look up some data for the current state of the economy. You wonder whether you will be able to keep up your sales in the near future, so you will try to assess the current economy and future expected state of the economy.
To evaluate the current state of the economy: Find data for (i) real GDP growth in Q4, 2023 (from bea.gov) and (ii) the most recent unemployment rate (from bls.gov).
Do these data indicate that the economy is strong, or did you see anything worrisome in the data above, indicating that we may be entering a recession?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve releases projections for the economy for the next few years every three months. Go to the FOMC website: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm and look for the "Projection materials" posted under the Dec. 2023 meeting. Fill in the table below with data from the projections.
2024 | 2025 | |
Change in real GDP | ||
Unemployment rate | ||
PCE inflation rate | ||
Federal funds rate |
Go back to your investment decision: You have now gathered data on interest rates, the state of the economy, and projections for the future economy.
Make a brief comment on how the current state of each of the factors below may affect your investment decision.
Current level of interest rates.
Current state of the economy.
Possible risks for the future in the forecasts.
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