Question
Go to the Bank of England Database webpage (bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database), locate and download the monthly average spot exchange rates between the pound and the euro for
Go to the Bank of England Database webpage (bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database), locate and download the monthly average spot exchange rates between the pound and the euro for the period from January 2013 to December 2022. Complete the following tasks: (a) Let be the monthly percentage change in / for month . Calculate as =11100% for February 2013December 2022. Compute and report the mean (denoted by ) and standard deviation (denoted by ) of . (b) Suppose that the current spot exchange rate is 0=1.1394. Construct a forecast of the spot exchange rate for next month, 1, as 0(1)=0(1+) If the one-month forward exchange rate /=1.1368, what contract would you make to speculate in the forward market? What is your forecasted profit? (c) Assume that the conditional distribution of the monthly change in / can be approximated by a normal distribution. Construct a 95% confidence interval for your forecasted profit from part (b) (i.e., the interval should cover 95% of your possible profits and losses).
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