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Green Line Skis sales manager wants to forecast in 2021 the sales for 2022. He has remembered that in 2016 he predicted that the sales
Green Line Skis sales manager wants to forecast in 2021 the sales for 2022. He has remembered that in 2016 he predicted that the sales for 2017 would be 410 M5. Besides this value he has considered the figures of actual sales for the past five years as follows: Year 2017 = 450 MS, Year 2018 : 495 MS, Year 2019 = 518 M5, Year 2020 = 563 MS, Year 2021 = 584 M5. He has been applying an exponential smoothing forecasting process using different values for the "a" para meter (a=0,1 a=0,3 a=0,6 and a:0,9). Use a spreadsheet to calculate forecasted values for each year and for each "a" parameter. After analyzing the data obtained and comparing them with the actual data: a) Explain what "a" value is the optimal to select for the forecasting. b) What is the forecasted value you have obtained from your calculations when using a:0,1? c} What is the forecasted value you have obtained from your calculations when using a=0,9? d) What consequences could happen in case of the Sales Manager to apply a different study than the optimal? Could it produce some deviations in production activities? Could it affect to capacity to face the demand
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