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Hale s Productions is considering producing a pilot for a comedy series in the hope of selling it to a major streaming service. The streaming

Hales Productions is considering producing a pilot for a comedy series in the hope of selling it to a major streaming service. The streaming service may decide to reject the series, but it may also decide to purchase the rights to the series for either one or two years. At this point in time, Hale may either produce the pilot and wait for the streaming services decision or transfer the rights for the pilot and series to a competitor for $100,000. Hales decision alternatives and profits (in thousands of dollars) are as follows: State of Nature Decision Alternative Reject, s11 Year, s22 Years, s3 Produce pilot, d110050150 Sell to competitor, d2100100100 The probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1)=0.20, P(s2)=0.30, and P(s3)=0.50. For a consulting fee of $5000, an agency will review the plans for the comedy series and indicate the overall chances of a favorable streaming service reaction to the series. Assume that the agency review will result in a favorable (F) or an unfavorable (U) review and that the following probabilities are relevant. P(F)=0.69 P(s1| F)=0.09 P(s1| U)=0.45 P(U)=0.31 P(s2| F)=0.26 P(s2| U)=0.39 P(s3| F)=0.65 P(s3| U)=0.16 a. Construct a decision tree for this problem. b. What is the recommended decision if the agency opinion is not used? What is the expected value? c. What is the expected value of perfect information? d. What is Hales optimal decision strategy assuming the agencys information is used? e. What is the expected value of the agencys information? f. Is the agencys information worth the $5000 fee? What is the maximum that Hale should be willing to pay for the information? g. What is the recommended decision?

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